The most common question I get from friends, family, business associates and, well, everyone is -- Do you expect a double-dip recession? My answer is an unequivocal "No!"

This does not mean that I think we are going to experience a dramatic improvement in the economy. We are not. Many of my colleagues seem to oppose my view, so it is not without some trepidation that I take this stand. However, I see the glass half full. My view is that others are overly influenced by "group-think" and the calls of doom.

I do think that we are currently adrift in uncharted waters and we may have a faulty rudder, too. The biggest fear I have is that everyone jabbering about another deep recession may actually cause one.

The following supports why I feel, from what we know, that we are not destined for a double-dip recession:

I have always felt that for all the blabbing we do -- or blogging, in my case -- we should try as best we can to be accountable for our good and bad calls. This report is long overdue, but I will post it anyway since all of my past year's picks and results have been made public.

The market was very harsh in the early part of 2009, filling investors fear and trepidation, and sinking to a March 9, 2009 bottom. Perhaps some of the bleeding has stopped, but the economy has not healed as bears and bulls seem to carry the day, or every other day.

You win some you lose some. This story is about one of my less successful investments, which I acquired and sold many years ago. Over the past four years, I have written many times about Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), by far my best stock investment, up 4,500%, give or take, over a ten-year period. I bought in at the bottom and held on for the ride, until last year when the market tanked and took Intuitive Surgical with it.

The other company was Superconductor Technologies (SCON), the makers of high-temperature devices that improve communications transmission quality.

Despite a positive open after much selling last week, the markets could not hang on to gains. The Chicago Midwest manufacturing data was not as negative as the Philly Fed from last week. It was another strong mergers and acquisitions day. Still, investors sold stocks on another dog day of August. The end of day trading showed that sellers still had a bit more power than buyers. Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 10,174.41 -39.21 (-0.38%)
S&P 500 1,067.36 -4.33 (-0.40%)
Nasdaq 2,159.63 -20.13 (-0.92%)

Top Analyst Calls

A rise in jobless claims was trumped by a housing number that was not so bad. There was also a rise in oil prices after NOAA released the path of Tropical Depression Three, revealing that it could be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico oil infrastructure. Regardless of the market move, this was another light-volume trading day. Ben Bernanke's testimony acted as a wash between yesterday and today because his lack of growth stance yesterday was negated today with more certain comments about new tools for the FOMC to use to counter a slowdown.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 10,345.76 +225.23 (2.23%)
S&P 500 1,093.66 +24.07 (2.25%)
Nasdaq 2,245.89 +58.56 (2.68%)

Top Analyst Calls

Analyst upgrades:

• CLSA upgraded Freeport McMoRan (FCX) to Buy from Sell and has a price target of $85 based on expectations for improved copper prices. The analyst believes China is mostly done with tightening measures and that downside in copper prices is limited.
• Jefferies upgraded Concur Tech (CNQR) to Buy from Hold due to improvements in corporate travel and structural growth drivers from international and SMB. The firm has a price target of $55 on the stock.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded ESCO Technologies (ESE) to Buy from Hold on expectations the company will announce a contract with SoCal Gas within two months. The firm upped its target for shares to $35 from $33.
• Wells Fargo (WFC) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital.
• Human Genome (HGSI) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
• Brown & Brown (BRO) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.

Analyst downgrades:

• Canaccord downgraded Netflix (NFLX) to Hold from Buy following the Q2 report and has a $107 price target on the stock. The firm is growing more cautious on ARPU pricing pressure, higher churn rates and higher SAC.
• Deutsche Bank downgraded Airgas (ARG) to Hold from Buy following the company's Q1 results due to valuation. The firm has a $65 price target for shares. Note shares were also downgraded at Soleil this morning.
• Goldman downgraded Piper Jaffray (PJC) to Neutral from Buy and lowered its price target to $35 from $46. The firm said Piper's ROE remains below peers.
• AMB Property (AMB) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill.
• Odyssey Healthcare (ODSY) was downgraded to Negative from Neutral at Susquehanna.
• Trina Solar (TSL) was downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James.

Analyst initiations:

• BofA/Merrill started Cognizant Technology (CTSH) with a Neutral rating.
• Stifel Nicolaus initiated Brigham Exploration (BEXP) with a Buy rating and $24 target.
• ThinkEquity assumed Dick's Sporting (DKS) with a Buy rating.
• Petrohawk Energy (HK) was initiated with a Perform rating at Oppenheimer.
• E.ON AG (EONGY) was initiated with a Buy rating at RBS.
• Atlas Energy (ATLS) was initiated with an Outperform rating at BMO Capital.

This morning Wells Fargo Bank (WFC) spread some sunshine reporting earnings of 55 cents per share (2 cents lower than the same period last year) versus the analysts average estimates of 49 cents. They have been closing branches, raising fees and seeing a reduction in loan losses with anticipated continued improvement looking forward.

The stock is up in morning trading and analysts are raising estimates as fast as they can backpedal out of their current positions.

How should investors view Wells Fargo's potential now? Is it time to take profits into the bullishness, jump into the fray before the opportunity escapes or hold tight patiently until the excitement of the day dissipates?

Wells Fargo (WFC) announced Wednesday that it will lay off 3,800 employees during the next year as the bank attempts to restructure its consumer finance unit. Wells Fargo Financial will be integrated into the company's community banking network -- closing 638 independent consumer finance offices in the process. The firm added that it is no longer going to deal with non-prime mortgage loans.

Reportedly, roughly 27% of the financial firm's Wells Fargo Financial employees will be laid off. In the next two months, 2,800 employees will be sent packing, while 1,000 more will be jettisoned in the next year. According to WFC, these changes will not affect WFC and Wachovia banks across the United States.

Stories are starting to appear that "my pal Warren" is gearing up for a major foreign acquisition. One of my dear friends Randy S. is taking a post graduate business class at UCLA where this issue is a part of the course. He is supposed to figure out what non US companies Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/BRK.B), led by Warren Buffett, might be considering for investment.

Ahh yes, the prediction business, quite tricky indeed. Starting with some basics, in most cases I would stick to the time tested philosophy that past performance is not an indicator of future success. That said, I think in the case of Buffett, it does. There are many clues along the trail based on his past performance.

Here are some basic consistencies from the existing portfolio that I would expect to hold true going forward.

Voltaire said, "Common sense is not so common" and George Bernard Shaw commented that having " ...enough of it was genius."

This reminds me of Warren Buffet, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) or Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple Inc. (AAPL) that have both displayed plenty of the former and arrived at the latter in their business pursuits.

Derivatives like Collateral Debt Obligations, or CDO's, and Credit Default Swaps, get their value from something else entirely: total hype in an environment of smoke and mirrors.

It turns out that if you build layer upon layer of derivatives until you have no idea what the original underlying value truly is, it becomes so convoluted that a genius can't comprehend it at all. It is self evident that nobody could even determine all the counter-party risk.

Analyst Upgrades

• Thomas Weisel upgraded Deckers Outdoor (DECK) to overweight from market weight following channel checks. The firm also raised its target for shares to $170 from $162.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Amerigroup (AGP) to buy from hold as it believes the company is well positioned to benefit from health care reform. The firm upped its target for shares to $42 from $38.
• Cowen upgraded Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST) to outperform from neutral, citing increased conviction in Cubicin's patent exclusivity.
• OmniVision (OVTI) was upgraded to strong buy from buy at Needham.
• Take-Two (TTWO) was upgraded to buy from hold at ThinkEquity.
• Wells Fargo (WFC) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Sterne Agee.

The market continues to be very volatile and trending down. When the seas are this turbulent you want to be on the biggest ships and thus I continue my review of the super cap stocks. This time, I'm going to examine return-on-equity (ROE) and return on-invested-capital (ROIC).

I started with the 12 highest valued companies but remained with 10 after running them through several screens. Among those 10 super, caps the company that is producing the highest returns is Microsoft (MSFT).

It's a cliché but it rings so true: just show me the money! In the case of stocks that's profits and distributions, or dividends.

The super cap review, in which I examine large cap stocks through different valuation methods, started with the 12 stocks with the highest capitalization and through several stock screens has been trimmed to just 10 stocks.

It has been widely reported that dividends contribute as much as 40% of the market stock appreciation on long term holdings. All things being equal, a diversified basket of dividend paying stocks should outperform a similarly diversified portfolio that does not.

The financial stocks and the overall market continued to get pounded by news out of Europe. This time it was Germany halting naked short selling. Chancellor Merkel's coalition wants to stop traders from buying credit insurance on government bonds they don't own ("naked swaps").

While there has been little support for this measure outside of Germany by governments or financial institutions, I think it is long over due. Many are crying foul, stating that it will increase interest rates, dry up liquidity, and prevent institutions from hedging their risks. I'm not so sure these would be bad things. I can think of good reasons to ban naked swaps.

I do not take this stance without due consideration because I have significant stakes in the financial sector, including positions in Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Citigroup, Inc. (C), E-Trade Financial Corporation (ETFC), General Electric Company (GE), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) and Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).

Over the years I have referred to "my pal Warren" (Warren Buffet) on many occasions. He has taught me a great deal. I have learned a few things from Sir John Templeton (RIP) as well. But when I think about the price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratios, it is Peter Lynch who stands tall.

Lynch has been retired for many years and has been generous enough to share some of his thoughts in a couple of worthy books: One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street. I highly recommend these best sellers to anyone that wants to expand their knowledge of value investing or manage their own finances.