goog

An update on a short position: Radio Shack Corp. (NYSE: RSH), first recommended on August 4, 2009 at a price of $16.13.

Too many retail (and wholesale) electronics stores in the U.S., too many Radio Shack stores, and a likely sales decline for Radio Shack in FY2009 and FY2010 do not bode well for RSH's shares.

An update on two short positions: GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME), recommended on May 26, 2009 at a price of $26.00, and Telefonica S.A. (NYSE: TEF), recommended on the same day at a price of $61.11.

GameStop: Hold Short. It's still hard to make the case for growth in high-end / sophisticated games amid a slowdown in consumer spending. The era of the 'frugal consumer' is upon us: basic games are in, pricey games are out. Cover Short on a bounce off $20, $17, $15, or $10. Buy/Stop Loss if you sold shares in this company: $33.

An update on two short positions: McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD), recommended on June 26, 2009 at a price of $57.00, and Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), recommended on the same day at a price of $35.56.

McDonald's: Hold Short. MCD's shares remain under pressure. The era of the 'frugal consumer' is well underway in the United States, to McDonald's detriment. There's also a trend away from standardized fast food, and toward local, 'roadside' hamburger joints and diners: they offer unique flavors and recipes, fresher food, and often atmospheres that can't be beat.

In my perusal of gold stocks, only one -- Harmony Gold Mining Co. (NYSE: HMY) -- trades rationally, but that is not enough to justify holding the stock if you believe, as I do, that gold prices are likely to fall.

Even with gold at $1,000 per ounce, HMY trades for a modest 12 times trailing earnings and 15 times forward earnings. For this valuation to hold up, gold prices need to continue their ascent at a fairly significant clip. If gold is truly a hedge against the end of the world scenario and collapse of the dollar, investor expectations should be to protect capital. These gold mining stocks, including Harmony, trade like growth stocks.

Do you see my point?

Imagine what happens to gold mining stocks if gold were to trade for less than $500 per ounce? It would not be pretty. These stocks are priced to perfection and beyond. That is why they should be sold.

Add Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) to the list of overvalued gold miners. At $40 per share, GG now trades within spitting distance of previous highs.

Those highs were attained at the end of an expansionary period, not at the beginning.

One of the hottest gold stocks is Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY).

With a share price that is affordable to the retail customer, smaller investors have been gobbling up shares in 2009.

But like AngloGold, the credit crisis knocked the wind out of the Yamana trade.

Shares actually were fairly valued when they bottomed below $5 per share. Now, with more than 100% recovery of that value, AUY trades above $10 per share. As a result, the valuation is way ahead of itself. Shares of AUY trade for more than 17 times trailing earnings and 18 times forward earnings. Gold prices would have to continue increasing by 15% to 20% per annum in order to justify these prices.

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) is one of the largest gold mining operations in the world.

The gold cult has made this company very wealthy -- AU has a current market capitalization of more than $15 billion.

I highly doubt the jewelry market could support that valuation, but the wacko gold bugs certainly do.

Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) announced that it would begin eliminating its hedges against a collapse in gold prices.

In so doing, the company is raising some $3 billion with the sale of stock that will dilute current shareholders.

While the gold hedges may have acted as a brake on revenues and profits in a rising gold price environment, the strategy was prudent.

Gold at $1,000. Better buy now or you will miss the greatest invention since tulips in the 1800s.

Or so they say. I say, what a bunch of baloney. Why on earth would I want to put hard-earned cash on something that may look pretty but has no real tangible value?

That's right, gold has no tangible value. Well, that's not entirely true since there is a vast cult of worshipers out there that say gold is the only thing with value. As a result of their die-hard belief, gold actually does have value, as we now see with AU trading for $1,000 per ounce.

After the closing bell on July 30, Massachusetts-based Evergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) reported second-quarter revenues of $63.8 million, compared to $55.8 million for the first quarter of 2009. The company's gross margin for the second quarter of 2009 was 1.9%, compared to 1.2% for the first quarter of 2009.

Unfortunately, these gross margins are way off the 34.7% we saw in the second quarter of 2008.

Investor and trader Mishko Janusevich, he of decent-sized net worth fame, had a mantra that he used to repeat while outlining the top, new stock shorts that appeared that day, as determined by technical indicators.

He would stand next to the overhead projected stock chart at the front of the trading room, point to the stock chart and recite, "You see this stock? You see that it's dropped $8 in past two days? You think it can't drop any more? SELL THAT STOCK, it's dropping more!!"

Another Dow component, United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), beat its bottom-line forecasts, but like most of the companies we've seen, they did so as a result of cost-cutting.

Revenues of $13.2 billion were below the consensus forecast for revenue of $13.92 billion. The diversified manufacturer also cut its revenue guidance for the year, and lowered the high-end of its profit forecast range.

Excluding a 15-cent-per-share hit from restructuring charges, chemicals giant DuPont (NYSE: DD), yet another Dow component, said it would have earned 61 cents per share. That number bested consensus estimates for a 53-cent per share profit, but once again, the top-line number is cause for concern.

DuPont said its second-quarter profit dropped 61% to $417 million, or 46 cents per share, with revenue falling 24% to $7.09 billion. Analysts had expected the company to bring in $7.14 billion in revenue.

Construction manufacturer and Dow component Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) reported earnings of 72 cents per share, well ahead of expectations of a 22-cent per share profit.

Top-line revenue came in at $7.25 billion, which is a lot of money. Unfortunately, it was nearly a billion-and-a-half dollars below expectations of $8.86 billion.

How did Caterpillar manage to achieve its earnings beat on lower-than-anticipated revenue?

Although the headlines are screaming about how companies are beating their earnings estimates, little newsprint is being devoted to this quarter's real story.

That story is that revenues for many corporations are way down year over year, and more importantly, their top-line revenues are often coming in below Street estimates.

To be certain, there have been some real success stories so far in Q2, and we'll be talking about some of those in a moment. Moreover, it is always a good sign when companies beat their earnings estimates.