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Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY - option chain) shares are falling today after the European Medicines Agency said it has rejected a request by BMY to market its breast cancer drug Ixempra. The agency said the increase in survival rates using the drug was not significant enough to warrant approval. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on BMY.

This morning, BMY opened at $18.92. So far today the stock has hit a low of $18.12 and a high of $19.30. As of 12:15, BMY is trading at $18.60, down $0.68 (3.5%). The chart for BMY looks bullish and S&P gives BMY a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bear-call credit spread above the $22.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in four weeks as long as BMY is below $22.50 at December expiration. Bristol-Myers would have to rise by more than 21% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

TGT hasn't been above $45 since early September and shown resistance around $21.50 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in BMY.

Yesterday, we were all surprised to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall back below 8,000. The Dow finished down 427 points to land at 7,997. In other words, just enough to freak people out at being below 8,000. Everyone noticed that it hadn't been this low since 2003, nearly six years ago. In other words, if have you spent the last six years putting money away in your 401(k), depending on what dividends you got, you may as well have put your money in a money market fund.

We've got about 450 points to go in 2003. The lowest it got that year was 7,524 in March. In the olden days, 450 points on the Dow would seem like an improbable swing, taking weeks or months. Not so in highly volatile 2008. A 450-point-drop would represent about a 5% drop -- a higher percentage loss than it was just a few months ago.

After that, 2002 has a low of 7,286. To get there the Dow would have to fall 711 points or 8.8% from Wednesday's close. Once that happens, though, the floor drops out. I'm not talking about technical support here, just psychological and historical support. See, if the Dow drops below 7,286, then we're heading into 1997 territory. That's the last time the Dow was below 7,286. If it breaches that threshold, we're heading back to October, 1997, when the Dow was at 7,161.

If that happens, it would mean that a lot of the gains of the late 90s have been wiped out. An entire decade lost. It may be just a number and just psychological, but it will certainly bum me out.

How many days, months, quarters, etc. will this ugly bear market continue? It is just as bad as buying dips on Internet stocks in 2000. The FOMC minutes gave a lowered economic expectation for 2009, like we didn't know that was coming. Housing starts were the worst on record, and now inflation is coming down so hard that deflation is the new damnation of the markets. Does it really matter what gets said anymore? No, it doesn't. Gee, were you even surprised that the deterioration into the close only picked up steam and the Dow shed 5% to close below 8,000 as the S&P decided to close at a five-year low? Sorry there is no good news, but this market is no longer a market.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is trading like it is no longer going to be around as its old self. This is truly ugly and unfair, but then again ... who has been rewarded for defending a financial stock? NO ONE. Shares were down 21% at $6.53 before the close.

E*TRADE Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ETFC) gave pretty decent numbers considering the current climate, yet it is getting crushed every day along with anything and everything else financial. This one was down 17%at $1.03 right before the close.

Medtronic (NYSE: MDT - option chain) shares are way lower today after the company posted a second-quarter profit of $571 million, or 51 cents per share. The company's adjusted profit of 67 cents per share missed analysts' estimates of 71 cents per share. MDT also lowered their fiscal-2009 EPS forecast by about 3% on both the high and low ends. None of this is helping the stock today. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on MDT.

This morning, MDT opened at $34.49. So far today the stock has hit a low of $31.25 and a high of $35.48. As of 12:30, MDT is trading at $32.24, down $4.18 (11.5%). The chart for MDT looks neutral and S&P gives MDT a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bear-call credit spread above the $42.50 range.

Shares of tech giant Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) are getting a nice lift today after the company surprised Wall Street by lifting its fourth quarter estimates this morning.

Before today's announcement, analysts had been expecting the company show earnings of $1.00 a share when it announces its official numbers next Monday (Nov. 24), but the company stated today it is now expecting to show adjusted earnings of $1.03.

The decision to lift its forecast has resulted in some nice gains for HPQ shareholders today, as the stock has traded up 10.5% to $32.41, and earlier in the session hit an intraday high all the way up at $33.84.

According to today's announcement, the company is benefiting from "global reach, diverse customer base, broad portfolio and numerous cost initiatives."

One of my top holdings, Intuitive Surgical Inc (NASDAQ: ISRG) and favorite stocks is taking a beating this morning and has been along with almost everything else. One of our readers who has been following this story line sent me an email asking what my current thoughts on the subject are. Andrew:

"I'm just curious if you hung on to your ISRG or if you bailed on it... I've been following it since this article, and man, its really heading down to the boiler room... Doctors seeem to be making cuts all over the place, and it looks like ISRG is being taken for a ride... I'm looking at getting in, but maybe if it hits 112 to even as low as sub 100... But I'm curious how you've taken to it?"

As the old saying goes in regards to the stock market, beware trying to catch a falling knife. Regardless, I have been a buyer of late. But first questions first. We did sell 20% of our position for a large gain just under $200 per share, having originally bought in at $7.70. We did not bail out but we did take our original money off the table, and then some.

Eaton (NYSE: ETN - option chain) shares have soared higher today after Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) disclosed in an SEC filing Friday afternoon that it has bought 2.91 million shares of ETN over the past six months. Usuall,y when announcements like this are made, investors follow the Oracle of Omaha and send the stock higher. If you think the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ETN.

ETN opened this morning at $42.30. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.48 and a high of $43.35. As of 12:25, ETN is trading at $43.49, up $2.34 (5.7%). The chart for ETN looks neutral and S&P gives ETN a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bull-put credit spread below the $30 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just five weeks as long as ETN is above $30 at December expiration. Eaton would have to fall by more than 30% before we would start to lose money.

ETN hasn't been below $37 at all in the past year and has shown support around $39 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in ETN or Berkshire.

A former senior manager at CB Richard Ellis Group (NYSE: CBG) in Southern California, now a partner at a private real estate company where I am an investor said to me this week that the stock market was just "white collar gambling".

This is a relatively common thought from Main Street and when my colleague Ron, made the comment it was hard to argue that it is not.

It certainly looks like gambling when you consider how momentum day traders place their bets, or options traders, or commodities traders -- and the past few years -- CEO's of major corporations.

I certainly was playing this theme up when I posted The great leadership disconnect: I bet the farm and you lose in September.

Earlier in the week Ron had brought up the fact that CBG stock had dropped from over $40 per share to under $4 and it seemed like it was bound to get back sometime in the foreseeable future for a huge gain. The following is the three year chart.

Ron is a smart real estate guy but he is not a stock market aficionado. He believed the risk / reward opportunity seemed like a no brain-er (not that he was going to invest). The first problem is that idea of the foreseeable future. I think the market is not foreseeing much lately. Most things seem quite cloudy indeed.

Actually I could not help but ponder the matter because, coincidentally, I was at a business breakfast the following morning where the speaker was a manager with responsibility for CBG's Asian portfolio investments. When Ron brought up the subject originally I responded that I did not follow the stock, but that it did not have to return to it's previous glory to achieve a great return on investment. Suppose it took two years to go from $4 per share to $6 or $7. Most anyone would be delighted with a 25%+ annualized return.

As it turned out, I saw my associate later that day and he pointed out that CBG had jumped 40% from the day before. WOW, some of the day gamblers, I mean traders, must have made a killing. Of course that is only if they were on the right side of the deal, and sold in time.

CBG closed Friday at $4.84, down 10% and has been volatile lately as the chart and the stocks recent moves indicate. It has a beta of just under 2 which means that it moves at twice the rate of the broader market.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own any shares of CBG. I do not do any day trading.

Nokia (NYSE: NOK - option chain) shares are falling today after the company warned that the global mobile phone market will weaken in 2009. NOK forecast global handset sales of 1.24 billion phones in 2009, down from a previous estimate of 1.26 billion. The entire industry is taking a hit today from this announcement including competitors like Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) and Motorola (NYSE: MOT) as well as suppliers such as Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM). If you think this Nokia won't be rising too far in the coming months of economic headwinds, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on NOK.

This morning, NOK opened at $12.43. So far today the stock has hit a low of $12.22 and a high of $12.97. As of 12:40, NOK is trading at $12.57, down $1.58 (11.2%). The chart for NOK looks neutral and S&P gives NOK a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bear-call credit spread above the $15 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in five weeks as long as NOK is below $15 at December expiration. Nokia would have to rise by more than 19% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NOK, RIMM, MOT, or QCOM.

I could never really see the charm in those horrid Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) plastic footwear, so I never joined in the hype and wasn't part of that fun ride that Crocs shareholders enjoyed for a while. Crocs went public almost three years ago in February 2006. The stock has since split 2:1 in June 2007, peaked at $75.21 in October 2007, and yet today it trades under a dollar.

Crocs problems haven't started with the current economic slowdown; cheap knock-offs hurt sales and competitors marketed similar products. Not to mention the bad publicity Crocs had to manage following some injuries caused by Crocs getting caught in escalators.

Wyeth (NYSE: WYE - option chain) shares have moved higher today after the FDA approved the usage of the company's PREMARIN to treat moderate to severe postmenopausal dyspareunia, which is just a clinical way of saying painful sexual intercourse. Helping treat that sounds like a good thing to me. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on WYE.

WYE opened this morning at $32.68. So far today the stock has hit a low of $32.68 and a high of $34.29. As of 12:45, WYE is trading at $33.70, up $1.26 (3.9%). The chart for WYE looks neutral and S&P gives WYE a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bull-put credit spread below the $27.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just five weeks as long as WYE is above $27.50 at December expiration. Wyeth would have to fall by more than 18% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

WYE hasn't been below $28 at all in the past year and has shown support around $30 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in WYE.

Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX) shares have been sinking today after the company announced it will suspend dividend payments after December. DSX had been paying a 25.30% annual dividend rate. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on DSX.

This morning, DSX opened at $12.50. So far today the stock has hit a low of $10.28 and a high of $11.01. As of 2:35, DSX is trading at $10.96, down $2.97 (21.3%). The chart for DSX looks bearish.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bear-call credit spread above the $12.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in ten days as long as DSX is below $12.50 at November expiration. DSX would have to rise by more than 14% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in DSX.

A few months ago I made a bet with my wife. If regular unleaded gasoline in Eastern Massachusetts drops below $1.99 a gallon by February, she buys me a latte. If it stays above $1.99, I buy her one. This bet comes to mind as I note that the price of oil fell 4.4% to $59.66 a barrel in London trading -- that's down 59% from its July high of $147. Why the fall?

I think there are two factors -- one having to do with trading and the other with supply and demand for oil. As I posted, 81% of oil trades earlier in the year came from speculators buying oil -- and other commodities -- while shorting the dollar. For some reason, that ended in July and the dollar has since risen in value by 20% from about $1.60/euro to $1.2748. Why? It may be partly because the world thinks that U.S. Treasury bonds are the safest investment in the middle of this global financial crisis. Since oil is traded in dollars, a stronger dollar drives down the price per barrel.

But there is also a supply and demand reason. With the global financial and economic crisis, demand is down. And despite promises by OPEC to reduce production, we may see that supply has risen when reports come out later this week. Specifically, crude oil stocks could be up 800,000 million barrels last week, distillate stocks should rise by 500,000 million barrels and gasoline by 800,000 million-barrels.

I am not expecting a big change in these factors -- and am looking forward to that latte. But even more than that, I will enjoy giving less money to people who don't like us very much.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Today started out looking like a great Monday after the Chinese announced a $586 billion stimulus package. Unfortunately, some of this was already in the works and many doubt its projected 8% to 9% growth for 2009 can stave off a recessionary environment ahead. Bonds closed early ahead of Veteran's Day, and are not trading Tuesday.

Here are the unofficial closing bell levels:
52-week lows
Top Upgrades & Downgrades
Solar Downgrades

American Capital, Ltd. (NASDAQ: ACAS) got killed after three major announcements: -$2.63 EPS, a $158 million acquisition, suspension of its dividend. Shares were down over 43% at $7.75 to a new multi-year low right before the close.

American International Group (NYSE: AIG) got a larger lifeline as the old $85 billion package grew to $120+ billion and then to $150+ billion, with some $40 billion coming from the TARP funds at better terms. Shares came off with the market at the end of the day, but were still up 9% at $2.30 right before the close.

United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS - option chain) and FedEx (NYSE: FDX) shares are getting a lift after competitor Deutsche Post AG announced it will close all DHL Express service centers in the U.S. Since UPS has been the steadier of the two survivors over the past year, I am more interested in a trade on that stock. If you think that UPS won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on the stock.

UPS opened this morning at $53.98. So far today the stock has hit a low of $52.80 and a high of $55.01. As of 12:45, UPS is trading at $53.53, up $1.61 (3.1%). The chart for UPS looks neutral and S&P gives UPS a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bull-put credit spread below the $40 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just six weeks as long as UPS is above $40 at December expiration. UPS would have to fall by more than 24% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

UPS hasn't been below $40 at all in the past year and has shown support around $50 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in UPS nor FDX.