IBM sells middleware software and technology services such as outsourcing and integration to large and medium sized businesses worldwide and competes with firms like Oracle and Red Hat. The firm is also among the global leaders in business systems and competes with hardware vendors like HP and Dell in the server market as well as EMC and NetApp in the storage market.

We have a $185 Trefis price estimate for IBM's stock and estimate that the firm derives the bulk of its value from its middleware software and technology businesses which make up nearly 46% and 28% of the firm's equity value respectively.

NetApp (NTAP), the fourth-largest player in the external disk storage market, creates innovative storage and data management solutions for small and medium-sized companies around the world. It competes mainly with other storage majors like EMC (EMC), IBM (IBM), HP (HPQ) and Dell (DELL).

Most investors would like a "do over."

They look back on certain investments and wish they'd never heard of, much less put money in them. Sure things like your good friend's invention that would make beer in one day from water and weeds. Or your brother's idea of selling real estate on Saturn. Everyone has their own stories. Mine are usually related to private investments in the medical device field or biotech, though I did have one out of Florida that made a "pig" that ran through oil pipelines to check on their safety. After meeting the founder who looked more like a used car salesman that caught a great sale on polyester suits, I should have known better right then. But I didn't.

This post is part of Japan: A Special Report for Investors.

"Japan's tsunami has struck worldwide," says Richard Moroney, the editor of Dow Theory Forecasts, which has maintained a model portfolio of blue chip stocks for over 50 years.

Here, he reviews a number of the top buy recommendations in the newsletter's portfolios to determine the potential risk posed by the recent tragic developments in Japan.

Stocks cited as "Focus List Buys" are are those issues that the service expect to significantly outperform the market over the next 12 months.

IBM (IBM) sells middleware software and technology services such as outsourcing and integration to large and medium sized businesses worldwide, and competes with firms like Oracle (ORCL) and Red Hat (RHT). IBM is also among the global leaders in business systems and competes with hardware vendors like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Dell (DELL) in the server market as well as firms like EMC (EMC) and NetApp (NTAP) in the storage market.

In a recent development, IBM announced the launch of a new software and consulting service targeted at helping companies swiftly adapt to rising customer demands in today's digitally transformed marketplace. The firm chooses to call this new emerging category "Smarter Commerce," keeping in line with its Smarter Planet initiative. We have earlier discussed IBM's focus on its Smarter Planet initiative and how the firm stands to benefit from it. (See IBM's Smarter Planet Initiatives Lay Groundwork for Growth.)

Analyst Upgrades

• Cree (CREE) and Rubicon Technology (RBCN) to buy from neutral at Merriman.
• Children's Place (PLCE) to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT) to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Copano Energy (CPNO) to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.
• Motorola Mobility (MMI) to neutral from reduce at Nomura.
• Parker-Hannifin (PH) to buy from hold at KeyBanc.
• Akamai (AKAM), ShoreTel (SHOR), AMB Property (AMB) and ProLogis (PLD) to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

Analyst Upgrades

• BB&T (BBT) and Aflac (AFL) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Zhongpin (HOGS) to neutral from reduce at Global Hunter.
• Marathon Oil (MRO), Noble Energy (NBL) and Manulife Financial (MFC) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) to buy from hold at Canaccord.
• Comerica (CMA) to buy from neutral at Rochdale.

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) is down 1.2% to $159.86 as I write this during the afternoon session. Volume is below average, however. More perspective: the 52-week low is $116 and the 52-week high is $166.25. Here's the one-year chart.

A few days ago, IBM received a positive initiation from CLSA, according to our Analyst Calls piece. The stock was given an outperform rating. Indeed, this company has been impressive as of late. I enjoyed the fourth-quarter results myself.

Analyst Upgrades

• Intel (INTC), ON Semiconductor (ONNN), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Fairchild Semiconductor (FSC), STMicroelectronics (STM) and Altera (ALTR) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Capital One (COF) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Dollar Tree (DLTR) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Foot Locker (FL) to buy from neutral at Sterne Agee.
• Progressive (PGR) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Flow International (FLOW) to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.
• Signature Bank (SBNY) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• HiSoft Technology (HSFT) to buy from neutral at UBS.

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) closed up 0.8% on the unveiling of the iPad 2. AAPL March put option implied volatility is at 26, May is at 33, compared to its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data. That suggests larger price movement in May.

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) overall option implied volatility of 20 is near its 26-week average of 21 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional movement into a March 8 investor briefing.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

IBM (IBM) sells middleware software and technology services such as outsourcing and integration to large and medium-sized businesses worldwide, and competes with firms like Oracle (ORCL) and Red Hat (RHT). IBM is also among the global leaders in business systems and competes with hardware vendors like HP (HPQ) and Dell (DELL) in the server market, as well as storage firms like EMC (EMC) and NetApp (NTAP) in the storage market.

"Buoyed by strong operating momentum, the technology sector earns high marks in our Quadrix® stock- rating system," says Richard Moroney.

The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts explains, "Our favorite picks in the tech sector -Altera (ALTR), Apple (AAPL), IBM (IBM) and Texas Instruments (TXN) - share some favorable qualities.

➤ December-quarter results: All four topped consensus estimates, producing double-digit growth in per- share profits. Revenue also exceeded expectations.

IBM(IBM)competes with Oracle(ORCL) and Red Hat(RHT) in the middleware software market.

IBM's advanced computing device Watson, "designed to quickly answer complex questions with pinpoint precision", recently defeated human competitors on the popular TV show Jeopardy. Watson, developed by IBM's scientists over the last three years and named after IBM's founder Thomas J. Watson, Sr., has taken data analysis capabilities to a new level.