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Every year I find myself asking the same question: What to get dad for Father's Day. Well, Kiplinger's offers not to get our dads the same old presents -- another tie, another power tool -- but stocks in companies he probably likes or uses their products. That's a great idea, I thought, and decided to counter with five of my own.

• Kiplinger's suggests: Diageo (NYSE: DEO), the seller of such brands as Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Guinness and José Cuervo. Diageo has held up better than most during the recession -- thanks to a balanced portfolio of products, with higher exposure to mid-price, mainstream brands and less exposure to ultra-premium brands. The shares look reasonably priced. At $56.01, Diageo trades at 15 times estimated June 2009 earnings of $3.82 a share. The stock yields 2.8%.

• Another to consider: Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP), the seller of such brands as Coors, Blue Moon, Pilsner and Rickard's. Beer, probably even more so than hard liquor is supposed to hold better during a recession given the cheaper price point. The company's recent quarterly profits more than doubled. The shares trade at 13 times forward earnings of $3.33 and yield 2.2%.

The Federal Reserve's cautious Beige Book may have been a small catalyst to keep a lid on the market, but the real weakness was after the 10-Year Treasury auction came in very weak and 10-year Treasury rates flirted with 4%. Higher draw-downs in oil inventories also kept energy prices higher. Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,739.02 -24.04 (-0.27%)
S&P 500 939.15 -3.28 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 1,853.08 -7.05 (-0.38%)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) reported a smaller-than-expected Q1 loss as sales slumped.
• Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) smaller-than-expected Q1 net loss sent shares higher.
• Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) solid Q1 results were in line with expectations.
• Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) posted higher-than-expected Q1 results but same-store sales fell.
• Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) lower Q1 earnings beat expectations and lower revenue was in line.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO) beat profit expectations as revenue and same-store sales both increased.
• Aruba Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: ARUN) received an analyst's upgrade following its Q3 report.
• Buckle Inc. (NYSE: BKE) reported better-than-expected Q1 expectations as revenue surged.
• Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) higher Q2 earnings beat expectations and sent shares upward.
• Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings, sending shares higher.

What? Buy The Home Depot (NYSE: HD) after it reported Q1 EPS of 35 cents -- it beat the First Call Q1 EPS estimate of 29 cents – but failed to raise guidance? Indeed, the Buy rating has been generated. Here's why:

Home Depot's Q1 sales fell 9.7% and same store sales declined 10.2%. Those are pretty bad totals for key metrics, and of course the stock sold off some Tuesday, with short-term players taking profits. However, unless you believe the U.S. housing market and economy is likely to remain in recession for more than two quarters, those low sales totals sat up easier comparisons for next year, and the stock pull-back represents a buying opportunity.

Analyst upgrades:

• Barclays believes Procter & Gamble's (NYSE: PG) portfolio mix provides better leverage to stabilizing macro trends. The firm upgraded shares to Overweight from Equal weight and raised its target to $60 from $56. Note the firm downgraded Colgate (NYSE: CL) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) to Buy from Hold as it finds the risk/reward on shares compelling at current levels and sees upcoming catalysts from McCafe and easing commodity pressures. The firm raised its target price to $65 from $60.
• FBR Capital upgraded Talbots (NYSE: TLB) to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect an attractive risk/reward, reduced risk of a bankruptcy, and merchandise improvements. The firm raised its target price to $4 from $2.
• Nokia (NYSE: NOK) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Baird.

We saw at least five directional changes throughout the day in the stock market, so the close still left people wondering what the day really was. The housing data was weaker than expected, and today marked the first day that the VIX went under 30. Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,476.36 -27.72 (-0.33%)
S&P 500 908.34 -1.37 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,734.54 +2.18 (0.13%)

Top Analyst Calls

Home Depot (NYSE: HD) reported its first quarter numbers today, topping Wall Street estimates, but cautioning that the company's business remains under pressure from the current housing crisis.

Ahead of today's earnings report, analysts had been expecting to see Home Depot, the nations largest home improvement retailer, show earnings of 29 cents per share for its first quarter, but the company surprised to the upside with 35 cents per share. Sounds like good news, but Wall Street has been selling the stock off so far in today's action.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says some really good things are happening, but you wouldn't know it from reading the headlines.

You want to shoot yourself when you read these headlines. "Local Banks Face Big Losses," is the lead story in The Wall Street Journal, a fomented survey story telling us that commercial lending is going to sink local and community banks under a pile of $100 billion in bad loans.

This is news?

So what!

With Home Depot beating earnings estimates and some financial firms asking to repay TARP loans, U.S. stock futures climbed, as Wall Street was set to open higher Tuesday. While investors are looking to extend the previous session's rally, feeling there are signs of stability in the financial and housing sectors, upcoming housing data could still change things.

[Update: Stock futures reversed course after a disappointing housing report that showed starts and permits unexpectedly fell to record lows in April.]

So, the story doesn't start off so well. Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) issued its Q1 numbers earlier today, and right off the bat, beginning at the top line, you see that net sales declined over 1%. Then you notice that profit on a dollar basis plunged over 20%. Earnings per share? That also took a dive of over 20%.

Then you look at the stock. And you say to yourself, "what's going on?" As I write this, with less than three hours to go in the trading day, shares of Lowe's are trading almost 10% higher! On excellent volume, too. As you might have thought, an earnings beat was lurking somewhere in the plot of this particular tale. Lowe's earned $0.32 per share in Q1. According to Trey Thoelcke's earnings preview, the market thought that only $0.25 could be achieved. This differential is helping to fuel the buying.

U.S. stock futures edged higher Monday morning following a week where stocks shed some 5%. Housing data will be in focus the next few days, with indication coming today from a builder's index and home-improvement retailer Lowe's (NYSE: LOW). Tomorrow, housing data and Home Depot (NYSE: HD) earnings are on tap. In general, though, investors are more concerned about the economy as the realization sinks in that things are less bad, but not turning good.

Meanwhile, the recent rise in oil prices has started to influence more prices at the pump. Oil prices rose above $57 a barrel Monday. While there are signs of weak crude demand, attacks on oil facilities in Nigeria helped support prices. As for consumers, the price of gasoline in the U.S. jumped 25 cents a gallon during the past three weeks, but remains well below prices from a year ago.

While the markets may have rallied recently, there's been little improvement in housing, credit, or consumers' pullback on discretionary spending. That's not good news for home improvement giants Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) and Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), which are both scheduled to report first-quarter results this week. And the expectations of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters bear out that sense that these companies aren't out of the woods yet.

Lowe's is scheduled to discuss its first-quarter results tomorrow, May 18, in a conference call at 9:00 AM ET with CEO Robert A. Niblock, president Larry D. Stone, and CFO Robert F. Hull, Jr. You can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website, or in the U.S. and Canada listen in by dialing 1-888-817-4020.

Hopefully all the people who thought the world was coming to an end have found good counseling while the rest of us get on with our business. This is not to make light of those that are struggling to find employment, or trying to rebuild their retirement portfolios -- this is a brutal economy indeed.

The most important thing, though, is that the stock market has improved recently, "bear rally" or not, because it has allowed investors to see that the market can go up as well as down. The most reliable prediction for the future of the stock market has always been "it will fluctuate".

My favorite motto comes from my time as a Cub Scout: be prepared. If you do not have a watchlist then you are not prepared. Yesterday I started this conversation with Serious Money: Keep your eyes on UPS and FDX.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) to Buy from Hold on a favorable risk/reward profile. The firm thinks sentiment is negative, estimate revisions have troughed, and compares ease in the second half of 2009. Jefferies upped its target price to $35 from $22.
• Citigroup upgraded Home Depot (NYSE: HD) to Buy from Hold on expectations for positive earnings surprises in 2009. The firm thinks home merchandise sales are picking up and consensus estimates could prove conservative. Citi raised its target price on the stock to $32 from $26.
• Bernstein upgraded Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT) to Market Perform from Underperform and raised their price target to $23 from $10 based on its credit agreement amendment and valuation.
• SunTrust (NYSE: STI) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman. Fiat (OTC: FIATY) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.