FedEx (NYSE: FDX) is going to raise the rates on many of its services in January of next year. UPS (NYSE: UPS) is planning the same thing. The price increase from FedEx will be close to 7% .
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "The increases come as shipping companies benefit from slumping fuel costs but are hampered by falling demand."
The move is a very big risk. During a recession, businesses and consumers will find almost any way they can to cut corners. FedEx still has formidable competition from the United State Post Office, which offers its own ground and overnight products.
FedEx is faced with the "damned if you do, damned if you don't" puzzle that most companies in an economic downturn are scrambling to solve. It needs to keep its revenue as high a level as possible. At the same time, it risks losing customers by making clients pay more than they ca afford.
The U.S. Postal System has lost much of its relevance as people move away from sending letters and documents through the mail in favor of electronic transfers and communications. FedEx might just help the USPS pick up some customers, if the old government-supported agency keeps its rates down.
UPS opened this morning at $53.98. So far today the stock has hit a low of $52.80 and a high of $55.01. As of 12:45, UPS is trading at $53.53, up $1.61 (3.1%). The chart for UPS looks neutral and S&P gives UPS a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bull-put credit spread below the $40 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just six weeks as long as UPS is above $40 at December expiration. UPS would have to fall by more than 24% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
UPS hasn't been below $40 at all in the past year and has shown support around $50 recently.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in UPS nor FDX.
Shipping giant FedEx (NYSE: FDX) reported its fiscal first quarter 2009, posting EPS of $1.23 a share, a 22% drop year-over-year.
The two main reasons for the 22% hit to its quarterly profit are high fuel costs and a slowing U.S. economy, which resulted in a lower demand for the company's express deliveries. Revenues were actually up 8.4% to $9.97 billion.
While it would be premature to say that market conditions are improving for the company, FedEx believes that it is doing everything it needs to do in order to compete and succeed in this current environment. According to the company's CEO, Fred Smith, "FedEx is taking strong, proactive actions to manage through this difficult cycle.''
One method of offsetting rising fuel costs will be implemented in January 2009, when the company will be raising its rates by an average of 6.9% for U.S. and U.S. export services.
Looking ahead, the company raised its second quarter outlook to between $1.40 and $1.40, higher than the $1.35 that analysts consensus, and raised its full year 2009 guidance to between $4.75 and $5.25, versus the consensus of $5.18.
The market is reacting somewhat positively to this mornings report as the stock is up slightly in in pre-market trading.
Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.
U.S. stock futures were higher today, indicating a possible positive start on Wall Street after the Federal Reserve, in a coordinated effort with other central banks acted to calm the markets, injecting $180 billion in to money markets. Also in focus are WaMu and Morgan Stanley, both are said to be on the block. Weekly initial jobless claims will be announced an hour before the market opens, and could sway sentiment in the face of the deteriorating employment picture. The Philly Fed survey for September and August leading indicators are also on tap.
The New York Times reported that according to its sources,Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is considering a merger with Wachovia (NYSE: WB). Morgan Stanley is considering other options as well, but so far all talks are preliminary and no deal may emerge. According to CNBC, Chinese bank Citic is also in talks with Morgan Stanley. If a deal goes through, it would leave Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) as the last one of the large independent brokers. MS shares are up 4% in pre-market trade, WB's up 10%.
Another option for Morgan Stanley reported by CNBC is sale of a minority stake to China's sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation(CIC), which already owns 9.9% of Morgan.
The New York Times also reported Wednesday that according to their sources, Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) has also begun exploring a sale in the event that it cannot find some other way to raise additional capital. Washington Mutual has hired Goldman Sachs to assess its options, which could include Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and HSBC (NYSE: HBC). According to Bloomberg, Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) and Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) have also expressed interest. WaMu shares are up 14% in pre-market trade. In general, all finanacial are up in pre-market over 2% and higher.
Last week's preview raised the question of whether consumers were turning to comfort foods in these uncertain times, specifically in terms of second quarter earnings of Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) and Krispy Kreme (NYSE: KKD). Campbell's strong earnings growth topped expectations, while Krispy Kreme narrowed its loss, though it fell short of estimates.
This coming week should bring reports from more food-related companies, from cereal maker General Mills and food packager CongAgra to grocery chain Kroger, to the parent companies of restaurants Cracker Barrel, Olive Garden, Red Lobster, Carl's Jr., and Hardees. Also look for reports from tech-related companies such as Oracle, Adobe, and Palm, as well as from financials Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, and from economic bellwether FedEx.
Here's what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting from some of the companies reporting earnings this week, as compared to their results from the same period of last year:
It really did not matter what happened in the broader market. Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) and Lehman (NYSE: LEH) were dismantled by the credit crisis. There are still plenty of questions about whether either will make it. Both stocks hit multi-year lows.
FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) traded up after raising guidance for earnings in the coming quarter, and said it was reaffirming its Fiscal earnings because the benefits of lower fuel prices were being offset by a weak economy and therefore weaker orders. Shares were up 3.8% in the final minutes of trade.
GFI Group (NASDAQ: GFIG) traded down over 25% after the firm announced its negotiations with Tullet Prebon have fallen apart and no merger is going to take place. As the firm is active in OTC derivative contracts and as the number of players is rapidly sinking, the value is perceived as far less on a go-it-alone strategy.
After nearly erasing all of Monday gains on Tuesday, it seems investors were going to try again today. U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher open as Wall Street eyes are all focused on Lehman Brothers and whether it could calm investors' concerns somewhat. But after the Lehman announcement came out, stocks turned mostly to red. Meanwhile, oil prices rose Wednesday after OPEC said it would cut output, ahead of weekly inventory data. And in Europe, the European Commission cut its growth estimate for the euro area this year. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH), which caused great concern yesterday and its stock plunged 45%, said it will announce its Q3 results today, a week early, in an attempt to calm investor concern about its capital needs following the failed talks with Korean Development Bank. Lehman will also outline plans to shore up its balance sheet. It could spin-off its prized investment management business and sell devalued mortgage assets. Already the stock is up nearly 25% in pre-market trading as of 7:20 am. Lehman has just announced a $3.9 billion loss during the third quarter due to wrong-way bets on mortgage securities and other risky assets.
Another deal that fell through caused GFI Group Inc. (NASDAQ: GFIG) tumbled 17% to $7.99 in extended trading yesterday. Tullett Prebon Plc, the second- biggest broker of transactions between banks, and GFI, the largest interdealer broker of credit derivatives trades, ended merger discussions after failing to reach an agreement on terms.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares closed nearly 4% down Tuesday after Steve Jobs, joking about the obit that was accidentally published, announced several new iPod models and a deal with NBC Universal, a unit of General Electric (NYSE: GE) to sell programming on the iTunes store. Despite the jokes, Jobs health remained in focus, and many say he looked better than in the previous event and more energetic. The market wasn't that impressed though with the event as most of the announcement were largely expected. AAPL shares have been trading up 1% in pre-market action.
Reports are swirling that FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) is considering a buyout of TNT NV, a major Dutch mail and express delivery service firm. As expected, both firms had no comment on the rumors.
TNT, which was founded in the 1700s, is ranked #4 on a global basis, with about $17.3 billion in revenues. The company's platform extends from Europe to Asia to Latin America.
No doubt, this is attractive to the folks at FedEx as the deal would make it #2 in the European express delivery service market. The company indeed needs to find a way to diversify away from its dependence on the currently ailing U.S. market.
But if TNT is in play, there are likely to be other bidders the come to the table, such as United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS). In other words, we could have a dragged out takeover battle.
FedEx (NYSE: FDX) may be in talks to buy its rival European rival TNT, according to a report from the Financial Times. TNT shares have jumped 25% in Europe.
General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) announced Monday it will supply parts for Gulfstream Aircraft Corp.'s G650 business jet in a deal worth potentially more than $100 million. Separately, GE said it would develop with Safran SA a new line of fuel efficient jet engines to compete with United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX) Pratt & Whitney.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) may have sold as many as 425,000 of its new 3G iPhones in the first three days after the handset made its debut, in line with projections and despite serious technical and activation problems. Apple and AT&T (NYSE: T) sold a combined 225,000 in the U.S. Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray & Co. predicts Apple will sell 4.08 million this quarter.
When UPS (NYSE: UPS) warned on earnings, no one should have been surprised, but it was something of a death of hope. Rival Fedex (NYSE: FDX) has already said it would be a bad year. UPS waited a week. Then, it admitted higher fuel prices and slowing customer orders were doing it substantial harm.
According toMarketWatch, "The package-delivery giant cut its second-quarter profit forecast to a range of 83 cents to 88 cents a share. In late April, UPS had expected to earn between 97 cents and $1.04 a share." At least the company will make money.
Perhaps that is the key. At least it will make money.
Even with skyrocketing oil prices, many large US companies have done such a good job driving up productivity over the last year that they can do relatively well as inflation undermines their gross margins. It is that productivity which may save some large American firms from disaster and keep stronger companies in a relatively good position.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised Q1 productivity upwards to 2.4%. This makes it less necessary for business to raise worker compensation. That, in turn, keeps costs down.
And, companies like UPS can still make money.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Recently, I was shopping for a couple of books on half.com. However, having spent about a half hour in my search, I decided, at the last minute, to forego my purchases. While the sellers were offering great prices, the shipping raised the books' costs to above what I would pay in a local bookstore. In the end, it just wasn't worth it.
As the price of gas goes up, so does the price of postage. While this hasn't been much of a concern with the U.S. Postal Service, private carriers like DHL, UPS (NYSE: UPS), and FedEx (NYSE: FDX) all pass the cost of fuel on to their customers. For example, at the end of 2007, UPS was tacking on a 4.75% gas surcharge for ground deliveries. Right now, it's 8.5%, with an even higher price for express shipping.
Some retailers are fighting back with free shipping or a flat fee for unlimited shipping. Unfortunately, while these deals may draw in customers, they chip away at the sellers' bottom line. As many online sellers have built their client base by offering better-than-store prices, the added costs may make it impossible for them to generate sufficient profit. This is likely to be particularly devastating for companies like Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), who are completely reliant upon their internet sales. At the very least, we're likely to see a major surge in companies that use U.S. Postal Service!
Shipping giant 
U.S. stock futures were higher today, indicating a possible positive start on Wall Street after the Federal Reserve, in a coordinated effort with other central banks acted to calm the markets, 
Last week's preview
After nearly erasing all of Monday gains on Tuesday, it seems investors were going to try again today. U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher open as Wall Street eyes are all focused on Lehman Brothers and whether it could calm investors' concerns somewhat. But after the Lehman announcement 
Reports are swirling that 
and 
. He also operates 
Stock picks and pans for troubled times: RIMM, ED, ISRG, GLW, LEA, SLB, GOOG ...
Is Berkshire Hathaway better than S&P Index?
Closing Bell: Torch Passing on a Friday Rally
