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Bonds: Smarter Plays for Darker Days - BusinessWeek


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In the days leading up to its acquisition by Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) founder and chief value destroyer Angelo Mozilo is getting emotional. Business Week reports that the man whose tan makes George Hamilton look like Casper "choked up" at the company's annual meeting to approve the deal. In an emotional speech, Mozilo described his love of the organization he'd built and described his tears as a "drawback of being Italian."

Let's see: Mozilo sold hundreds of millions of dollar in stock at several times the current price, and will now walk away from battered shareholders with a bloated net worth resulting from horrific corporate governance, leaving Bank of America to deal with the shareholder lawsuits and attorneys general investigations into the company's practices.

Remember Tammy Faye's tearful interviews after her televangelist collapsed amid revelations of extramarital affairs and air-conditioned doghouses? It might not be quite as pathetic, but Mozilo is one of the few people who can give the late Ms. Faye a run for her money in the unsympathetic display of emotion department.

I somehow doubt that shareholders were moved by Mozilo's speech, which was delivered in a shareholder meeting free of a question and answer session, marked by an overwhelming security presence reflecting the number of people who hate Mr. Mozilo.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says with few exceptions, the landscape is littered with corpses.

Sell everything. Nothing's working. Revisit when the prices are adjusted for a big recession, soaring inflation and a crushed consumer. Sell at 12,000 and come back at 10,000. Even better: short it.

Are you going to argue with any of that? Do you have a case against it? What's the counter? Takeovers? We've had a couple: Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) (Cramer's Take), Wrigley (NYSE: WWY) (Cramer's Take). Good if you owned them.

Lower rates? Can the Fed help? We assume the Fed is done. The odds favor higher rates. Bank turnarounds? How, with short-rates going up? With housing prices going down?

Can oil go down? Only with a worldwide crash, and with a worldwide crash, why would we come back at 10,000?

Can the consumer get more liquid? How? Unemployment's going higher. Wages won't go up in that environment.

That's the environment. It's pretty bulletproof when it comes to its logic.

Angelo Mozilo, CEO of Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) may be a thug and he may get in trouble with federal authorities due to the way he ran his company. But at least he was generous.

According to The Wall Street Journal, everyone from casino employees to retired pro athletes got sweet deals. The paper writes that, Mr. Mozilo regularly lined up loans for people he met, according to several current and former Countrywide executives. Said one: "Angelo would call in and say, literally, 'My maid needs a loan.'"

Mozilo even gave a loan to the buyer of hockey player Wayne Gretsky's home.

The big open question about these mortgages is whether the people could have gotten them in the normal course of business, or was Mozilo's help necessary. He also may have made certain that his pals got below market rates.

Based on most of what has come out about Mozilo's behavior, he should probably give back those tens of millions of dollars in cash he got from stock options.

And perhaps, spend a few years in the pen.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

More states have filed charges against Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) for aggressive marketing and giving loans which were highly risky. Washington and California have joined Illinois in the actions.

Up until now, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), which is buying Countrywide, has been sticking to its story that it will close on its purchase of the mortgages company. The media has written a million times that the big money center bank might pull out of the deal. That actually became a bit more likely with the new states' actions.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Kurt Eggert, a law professor at the School of Law at Chapman University said, "Countrywide could be required to give back its profit on all those loans and conceivably give back houses on which it has foreclosed." Since that number could be well into the billions of dollars, the potential damages are rising fast.

Countrywide could spend tens of millions of dollars on legal fees and countless hours in court over the next several years. That has become much clearer in the last few days.

BAC would be better off to let CFC go out of business and just buy its assets. Maybe the bank never intended to close the deal. Maybe that was its plan all along.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Angelo Mozilo's nine lives may be about to run out. So far the CEO of Countrywide (NYSE:CFC) has avoided the most severe taint from the collapse of his mortgage company and its questionable practices.

The State of Illinois, the land of Lincoln, will bring civil charges against Mozilo and the firm he started. According to The Wall Street Journal, In a draft of the complaint, Illinois alleges that the company engaged in "unfair and deceptive practices" in the sale of mortgage loans.

One of the main pieces of the complaint is that mortgage brokers pushed loans on people, even it they could not afford them.

Of course, as is always true with charges bought by attorneys general, there is some politics behind the claim. There have been a number of Countrywide foreclosures in the Illinois.

To some extent the politics do not matter. Based on other investigations of Countrywide, it appears that management did quietly push its people to move loans out like cars off an assembly line.

What is most troubling is that no one in government anywhere caught onto the practice earlier.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

U.S. stock futures were higher Wednesday morning, ahead of several economic reports and the Federal Reserve's policy statement on interest rates. While trading might be affected by the upcoming economic data, the real test will be in early afternoon, when Fed chairman Bernanke will read the policy statement. Some on Wall Street believe a strong statement could help markets recover.

U.S. stocks ended lower on Tuesday, as markets just couldn't pull it together ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision. Combine that with worries over the economy, oil, struggling financials and the the Dow industrials fell another 34 points, or 0.29%, the Nasdaq Composite 17 points, 0.73%, and the S&P 500 3 points, or 0.28%.

At 8:30 a.m. EDT, the first economic reading of the day will be reported -- May durable goods orders. At 10:00 a.m., May statistics for new home sales is due out. Neither are likely to show any improvement in their respective sectors.

Then, at 10:30 a.m., weekly crude inventories will be released. Lately, this statistic has affected oil prices more than it once did. While the report may show diminishing supplies, it could also show lessened demand.

The biggest event of the day will then come at 2:15 p.m. EDT, when Bernanke will read the Fed's policy statement. No action on interest rate is expected, but a shift in focus where the Fed considers inflation as a risk to the economy rather than slow growth. This could be a signal for future rate hikes.

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) closed at $28.14 Thursday.

BAC aims to complete its planned acquisition of Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) on July 1. BAC announced in January of 2008 the planned acquisition of CFC for 0.1822 per share of BAC for each share they own, $5.13 based on BAC closing share price of $28.14. CFC closed at $4.83.

BAC July option implied volatility of 51 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the acquired Bear Stearns portfolio is worth even less than he thought.

How bad was that Bear Stearns portfolio? I am beginning to believe that JPMorgan's (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) buy of Bear is looking like a big mistake. It can only be justified by what might have been an even bigger problem for JPM -- the collapse of the trades that Bear made, which were being processed by JPM's clearing.

We are now beginning to get a real sense of the worthlessness of the mortgage portfolios. Not that we got any help from the SEC, which has taken a "we don't care what's in the mortgages as long as you tell us you have mortgages" attitude. That's been worthless for investors, and maybe even for JPMorgan.

The losses now exceed $400 billion, according to my modeling (if you simply assumed that 50% of the exotic mortgages that were issued from 2005 to 2007 eventually went into default). That's amazing, but it looks like I dramatically underestimated the losses. UNDERESTIMATED!

The most egregious issuers of these exotic mortgages were Bear, Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) and Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take). I believe that JPM has taken in a huge number of uninsurable, non-hedgeable mortgage instruments that are a pure write-off. And that means they are probably underwater on everything they took in.

Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE:TMA) was one of the larger mortgage lenders in the US. Its stock now trades at $.65, down from almost $27 a year ago. That means it market cap was $5 billion then.

According to The Wall Street Journal, TMA said in a federal filing that "the future of the home-mortgage finance company as a viable business remains in doubt." The company is trying to raise over $1.3 billion, but, by many accounts, that is not going well.

One of the issues that the Thornburg problems opens, again, is why Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) is so anxious to buy Countrywide (NYSE:CFC). While the largest mortgage lender may have problems which are not quite as severe as Thornburg's, it still faces a growing number of customer defaults.

Many on Wall St. would argue that Countrywide would trade well below its current price of $4.67,down from its 52-week high of $38.89, if BAC had not made its offer. It has traded as low as $3.95. CFC has had trouble with regulators, write-offs and in being probed for its lending practices.

Could Countrywide have fallen below $1 if it did not have a firm buy-out offer? Certainly.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Minyanville's wise professor, Mark Bloudek, dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

I've been doing precious little in this market, but one stock I've been tracking closely is Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB). Why would I pay more mind to Wachovia than to other banks? Because it bought Golden West Financial in May of 2006 for $25 billion. And where did Golden West have most of its exposure? That's right, California.

Last night I was looking through the median home price data in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) in various California cities and noticed some shocking price drops. The median home price offers in San Francisco dropped $10,000 in one week. Ditto for Orange County. In Los Angeles, the figure was a startling $13,000. I went back to check when the market topped in these areas and found that every one of them peaked in -- drum roll, please -- May of 2006.

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that "Dealings with Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC) are becoming a liability in political circles."

Democratic Senator Kent Conrad of North Dakota is donating $10,500 to Habitat For Humanity, in a nice gesture designed to compensate for the fact that he received a loan under special terms from Countrywide -- part of a program at the company known as F.O.A., meaning friends of Angelo Mozilo, the company's CEO.

Barack Obama advisor James Johnson resigned from the campaign after the media reported that he had received a special loan, and Senator Chris Dodd has come under fire for something similar.

Political corruption is one thing and, as political corruption goes, this hardly seems worth noting, especially in the current climate. But it hasn't gotten any attention as a corporate governance matter, and it should. Angelo Mozilo was paid hundreds of millions of dollars to run Countrywide Financial and he appears to have used shareholder assets to give special deals to his friends. If he wanted to give gifts to friends, he should have done it with his money.

Is it material? No, probably not. It's just more evidence of the fact that Angelo Mozilo ran the company as a personal fiefdom -- the opposite of the way a public company should be run, but not much different from the way most probably are.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that rather than merging, these banks will have to raise money through dilutive offerings.

The big difference between 1990s bank implosion and this one is that nobody at other banks sees any value in owning the ones that are faltering.

Key (NYSE: KEY) (Cramer's Take) is the latest example. Key's everywhere, it is grandfathered to be in every state. You would think there was some bank out there that would want it. Nope. No one. So they have to do this down round that destroys the common. Nobody wants Sovereign (NYSE: SOV) (Cramer's Take) either. Or Nat City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take). Or Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take). The latter's really interesting now that Hudson City (NYSE: HCBK) (Cramer's Take) has passed it in market size because it says that all of those branches and all of that deposit base just doesn't mean anything. Or worse, the losses are so bad that unless the Fed takes the losses and puts them on its balance sheet, there can be no consolidation.

Yet consolidation is the only way to go. Now, we are much more laissez-faire then we were in 1990. The administration then felt engaged to move quickly to set up mergers instead of the charade of down rounds. I call them charades because none of them yet has produced a return for anyone who has put the money up.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the market's a mess, but the S&P oscillator and buyout offers could give an opportunity for trades.

Here we are again. Another unfathomable moment to buy stocks.

You have the financials just falling apart at the seams.

Oil and the grains are out of control.

The Fed chairman and the Treasury secretary have declared the worst is over even as we await the demise of a half-dozen banks, and we question the solvency of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). The only stocks working are Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) (Cramer's Take), Agrium (NYSE: AGU) (Cramer's Take), Potash (NYSE: POT) (Cramer's Take) and a handful of natural gas companies.

It's crazy out there.

And yet my best indicator, the Standard & Poor's oscillator, which you can order from their Web site, is saying you cannot be short here and should be doing some buying. The oscillator, when it has been at minus 5, has called a bottom almost every time in the last decade, plus or minus a day or two, and a percent or even two, and I have long since learned not to see through it.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that with this bank going back to the well, there are too many questions to risk buying in this space.

Why doesn't Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take) raise $15 billion? Or $20 billion. How about $30 billion?

Would it then not have to come back to the market? Maybe for $40 billion we could lose what has become a cancer on the market.

The question we all must ask this morning is how bad are the portfolios that these firms are stuck with, and how bad is every attempt to undo them? Where did they come from? Who put them into these bonds? Which clients dumped them on Lehman? Who allowed this? Have they been fired? Why did the firm exude any confidence? Why did it hold on to this stuff for so long? How undercapitalized was it really?

All of these things spring to mind because the previous capital raise, the preferred raise, clearly meant nothing. No more than the raises that Merrill (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) has done and will no doubt have to do more of.

It's the denials that get me. Or the "soft denials," the ones that tell us, "Look, things are fine." Because that's all quicksand.