FeedPosted Dec 1st 2008 1:21PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Rants and Raves, Black Friday

As Peter Cohan
wrote this weekend, sadly, some folks were killed over the holiday weekend due to what could be easily argued as Black Friday madness. In the zeal for saving a few dollars on cheaply-made, bargain-basement disposable consumer goods, one man was trampled to death as he opened the doors of a
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:
WMT) store, while two other people were shot to death outside a Toys R Us store. Joy to the world, the materialism has won.
Although I enjoy covering the Black Friday event every year, the industry-made madness has become such an event that actually dumps respect for human beings into the garbage disposal, so that those crazy souls wanting to save 30% on shoes or a flat-screen television can get their fix.
I mean,
is this what the holidays have come down to?
The New York Times has a decent perspective on this. But, of course, America has always been about materialism and consumerism. Those are the factors that have made the U.S. the reigning economy worldwide. It's a free country for anyone to do as they wish, from billion-dollar companies to consumers with change in their pockets purchasing power. If we're all trained like Pavlov's dogs come the day after Thanksgiving -- credit cards in hand at 5:00am -- then it's no surprise some folks will die for the self-indulging greed of other human beings. Fa la la la la, la la la la.
Posted Nov 29th 2008 4:40PM by Steven Mallas (RSS feed)
Filed under: Consumer Experience, Internet, eBay (EBAY), Amazon.com (AMZN), Marketing and Advertising, Black Friday
If you thought Black Friday was just for brick-and-mortar retail, think again. The official start of the online shopping rush is the Monday after the Thanksgiving holiday (Cyber Monday is its name), but don't think that companies like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) are going to wait that long. They're in the game now. And they want your attention. More importantly, they want you to use the virtual shopping carts at their respective sites early and often. It's really crucial this year, because the economy stinks, and growth in spending isn't going to be great.
According to CNBC, Amazon's strategy is to use very low prices as a way of stopping competitors like eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) dead in their electronic tracks. This Christmas season, retailers, whether online or not, may find themselves in a no-win situation. They have to lower prices to encourage people to shop. But quality growth in top-line sales is questionable. When managements see the bad news flow about the global recession, they become scared and want to become even more aggressive in terms of pricing. The strategy may work and it may not. It's a vicious circle. Don't get me wrong, the retail industry faces this problem every year at this time, but you have to agree that the current economic cycle is particularly noxious. It's times like these, however, when retailers should want to offer more than just a value proposition. They should want to offer a differentiated shopping experience, a better selection of items. They should strive to offer up a brand image that makes you want to hit their inventories first. They need to step away from trying to undercut all their competitors and instead figure out how to stock the right merchandise in the right amounts. And when it comes to a business like Amazon, I think there's great opportunity to go beyond low-pricing strategies. Quite frankly, I don't care whether Amazon has the lowest prices or not. I find it easier to do some of my holiday shopping on the site. It saves me time during this busy season, I trust the security of the platform, and I know that the supply chain is efficient and reliable. And I definitely think of Amazon first when looking to do online shopping because of its valuable brand equity.
Continue reading Will Amazon win with its pricing strategy?
Posted Nov 28th 2008 10:30AM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Competitive Strategy, Wal-Mart (WMT), Columns, Best Buy (BBY), , Black Friday
Welcome to the 87th installment of The Wal-Mart Weekly, a column dedicated to bringing you insight, wit, facts, results, opinions, and just a bit of everything else when it comes to a very hot topic these days: Wal-Mart.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) was set to, as usual, be one of the most aggressive discounters this holiday season in order to move as much inventory as possible. Nowhere is there a better yardstick for just how aggressive one could be than by looking at the deals offered on Black Friday.
As I sat down Thanksgiving Day to a little football and a slew of Black Friday ads to study, it became pretty clear that Wal-Mart was aggressive in its pricing, but by no means the most aggressive. Since it seems consumer electronics continue to be a focus area when it comes to holiday retailing, I focused in on that product segment. So, let's delve deeper and really see who was the most aggressive, shall we?
Continue reading Wal-Mart Weekly: Taking stock of Wal-Mart's Black Friday offerings
Posted Nov 27th 2008 2:00PM by Paul Carton (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad News, Black Friday
Consumers are delaying big purchases -- big time.
A ChangeWave consumer spending survey reveals a massive breakdown in the willingness of consumers to buy big-ticket items.
In the survey of 2,763 U.S. consumers, completed Nov. 3, 21% of respondents said they have delayed or canceled a major planned purchase in the past 90 days.
What are the top big ticket items consumers have put on hold?
Here's the not-so-fab five:

It's no surprise that autos top the list.
As one respondent said, "Both of my cars have 80K miles. Usually I would be replacing one of them, but I'm delaying that decision due to the state of the economy."
Continue reading 5 big things consumers aren't buying
Posted Nov 26th 2008 12:00PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Wal-Mart (WMT), Black Friday, Kohl's Corp (KSS)

While
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:
WMT) keeps racking up sales as the
king of retail in a depression, competitors certainly don't want to lose out on holiday sales. In fact, with such a bleak holiday shopping season predicted by multiple market pundits, some retailers are trying to divert those upcoming Wal-Mart shoppers into their own shoppers. But how?
Kohl's Corp. (NYSE:
KSS) held a three-day Christmas sale that actually ends today -- the day
before Black Friday. The department store-style retailer offered price cuts to the tune of 40% during the last three days in an attempt to steal some of Wal-Mart's customers. You know, the ones who will brave chilly temperatures and 5:00 a.m. waiting lines come Friday morning. The same goes for retailer
Macy's, Inc. (NYSE:
M). Macy's planned its biggest discounts last week, trying to pull in Black Friday shoppers a full week early.
Did the strategy work? This year would be a hard year to measure since not all things are equal. Shoppers are reluctant to pull out the purse or wallet, the stock market is psychotic, home sales are at a standstill, unemployment is rising fast and the economy is circling the average American like a shark.
But then again, this is why competitive pressures have surfaced: retailers are having to fight tooth and nail for every shopper dollar this year, and all the stops must be pulled out. A Gallup poll recently indicated that Americans will spend an average of $616 on gifts this year,
a 29% drop from 2007. When a third of the holiday retail dollars go away, it s bare-knuckled fight among retailers - nothing less.
Posted Nov 20th 2008 12:57PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Target Corp. (TGT), Best Buy (BBY), Costco Wholesale (COST), Black Friday
As Black Friday approaches just over a week from today, you may be wondering where some of the best deals will be had. Sure, the usual suspects like
Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:
COST),
Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE:
BBY) and
Target Corp. (NYSE:
TGT) will be offering huge discounts on the largest shopping retail day of the year. This year is different: the U.S. is in the midst of a full-blown economic funk. Consumers are not spending, retail prices are way down and layoffs are increasing. Will you be spending like a drunken sailor this holiday season?
Regardless of the precarious economic climate the U.S. and much of the world is in, retailers are not closing up shop for winter. There are
still some great bargains to be had and people will shop for gifts this year, just at a much lower rate than in the past. Just how low a rate remains to be seen, but let's chew on some deals to whet the whistle: Best Buy if offering an eMachines desktop PC with 18.5" LCD monitor and printer for $299 and a Canon Powershot 10 Megapixel digital camera for $199, Target is offering men's cotton sweaters (your choice of neck style) for $10 and a Garmin nuvi 200 GPS system for $119, and CostCo is offering a VTech 3-handset cordless phone system for $39 and a Western Digital portable backup hard drive for $89.
Compared with normal pricing on all those items, there are
savings to be had this year. Will you be out in your car early in the morning hours of Friday morning to snag one of these deals or perhaps another one? Human nature tells us that there will be those of you brave enough to trade time and patience for dollars. If you do take in some bargains this coming Friday, you'll be in a select group, as many of us will be reigning in purchases and will be spending extra wisely. The retailers will thank you, and hopefully their bottom line numbers will show your effort this season.
Posted Apr 13th 2008 8:45PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Bad News, From the Boards, Competitive Strategy, General Electric (GE), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Black Friday
General Electric (NYSE: GE) not only disappointed Wall Street investors this past Friday with its horrible results, but shocked investors as CEO Jeffrey Immelt gave the "all is alright" signal in mid-March. He should resign as he has had nearly 7 years to grow this once great company.
GE should also bite the bullet and spin off several segments into separately traded companies. I wrote about this extensively last year for AOL, but now the rationale is abundantly clear. This company--a major conglomerate--cannot deliver decent shareholder returns. Immelt took the reigns of GE on September 7,2001 when the stock was at $40. Nearly 7 years later the shares are at $32 and barely holding on. I find it amusing that some "value" investors think GE is interesting at this level. These were the same investors that found GE interesting and a value-play at $38 last year.
The problem with GE is not that it's too big: the problem is it is too complex. The largest industrial company in the world now is Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) with expected revenues this year of $550 billion. This company however is strictly in the energy sector--it's measurable and quantifiable. GE is a mish-mash of businesses, from light bulbs to jet engines to appliances to consumer loans, whereby some segments are doing well and others horribly. How does any analyst assign a proper PE ratio expectation?
One segment, the infrastructure division grew its revenues by an admirable 23% this past March quarter and its profits by 17%. With this kind of growth and visibility into the next 18-24 months on revenues because of contractual commitments, this division alone could command a 25 + PE ratio. GE as a whole is now trading at 14 X 2008 EPS estimates of $2.20-2.30.
The GE Financial segment was woeful and provided the negative surprise. This segment on its own would trade at a PE ratio of between 9-11 times. The NBC-Universal division showed only 3% year-over-year growth, but cash flowed very well. This segment should command a 15-17 PE multiple.
Continue reading GE: Time to Spin-off the Parts
Posted Jan 4th 2008 12:57PM by Timothy Sykes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Market Matters, Halliburton (HAL), Citigroup Inc. (C), Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY), , , Black Friday, Research in Motion (RIMM), Newmont Mining (NEM)

Normally, I try to avoid overall market prediction. I think it's a waste of time. But just as
my Scooby sense told methat
Solarfun (NASDAQ:
SOLF) looked ripe for a fall yesterday -- even as the stock was breaking out to new highs on news of yet another contract -- I'm feeling pretty bearish on the overall stock market for 2008.
I won't bet on it because a.) I don't have the patience and b.) I'm a momentum stock trader, what do I know about the macro picture? But that's the beauty of blogging; it's all about the sharing of ideas. And since, even with all my mistakes, my cumulative nine-year investment return is 4,832% (a little better than most, as detailed
in my book), I know a little something about nearly everything stock market related and maybe I might be able to make/save you a buck or two. So, here we go, please comment as I'd like to get your opinion too!
Sure, today's jobs report is tanking the market and bringing up recession talk, but this is just a blip in the grand scheme of things. For the past few weeks/months, the stock market has been heading lower and there are tons of articles talking about how 2008 is going be another tough year for the stock market. (As if a 10% year for the Nasdaq is "a tough year" LOL, you spoiled, spoiled people, you ain't seen nothin' yet!)
Continue reading Why I think the market will drop 10+% in 2008
Posted Dec 5th 2007 12:22PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Good news, Industry, Black Friday

A glut of Black Friday pricing promotions, more available shopping days and colder weather has assisted U.S. retailers in bringing back some shine to November same-store retail results. This is no surprise, but it helps the market take a deep breath after weak consumer confidence, a credit crunch that's still in progress and the lack of a "must have" holiday gift item were all worrying retailer watchers a few weeks ago right before Thanksgiving.
U.S. retailers have had a tough year this year (some worse than others) on the
backs of spending pullbacks from many customer groups and tightening wallets. So far, estimates are concluding that November same-store sales results will rise 2.5% for November, ahead of the YTD rate of 2.2% through October of this year -- the slowest in over four years.
Continue reading November retail numbers raised by early Thanksgiving
Posted Nov 30th 2007 5:45PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Wal-Mart (WMT), Columns, Black Friday
Welcome to the 38th installment of The Wal-Mart Weekly, a column dedicated to bringing you insight, wit, facts, results, opinions and just a bit of everything else when it comes down to a very hot topic these days: Wal-Mart.
Last week, I suggested a plan of action to Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) for the marketing event that should rule all others: Black Friday. While Wal-Mart was busy this year threatening websites and online entities with lawsuits in order to plug leaks, the retailer could have used some innovation in its marketing message and actually driven a whole wave of curious buyers to its front doors.
Wal-Mart needs to be more innovate and far more proactive. Business as usual, especially during the busy holiday shopping season, should be an action of the past.
Today, I'll tear down some sections of Wal-Mart's Black Friday specials and we'll see how competitive it is with the other big retailers in town. I'll specifically look at consumer electronics retailers Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY) and Circuit City Stores, Inc. (NYSE: CC) (since electronics is the hot category this shopping season), and discount retailer Target as well.
Continue reading The Wal-Mart Weekly: Black Friday and Cyber Monday recap
Posted Nov 27th 2007 2:33PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Industry, Black Friday
Now that Black Friday and Cyber Monday are over, retailers nationwide will continue the price discounting this week (and beyond) to keep those sales pouring in all the way until the end of December. Some retailers are taking the discount versus profit line this week, as 50% off is being seen at many online outlets, which is sure to cause a profit knock at the end of the day.
Is this any surprise? Not really --
loss leaders are always used to hook consumers looking for bargains into stores (and online retailer websites) where they are either ferociously upsold more expensive products or are extensively cross-sold more products than they came looking for.
It's the savvy consumer who seeks out a good bargain and leaves with just that item (or items) that retailers don't really want. But the U.S. consumer is a savvy one indeed, and the more tactics retailers use to push non-bargain products, the more consumers shrug them off.
It's been said that there are no "must have" gift products this year. These products, based on the law of supply and demand, command premium prices. When there is a lack of that kind of product, the only recourse many retailers have is to slash prices to get customers lifting up their spending. Although the holiday shopping season this year may indeed be a large one, will any companies make significant profit? Is there a goal of selling as much as possible while
making very little profit in the process?
Posted Nov 26th 2007 2:08PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Industry, Black Friday

According to retail tracking experts ShopperTrak RCT Corp., this year's holiday shopping season, which
officially began this past Friday, was
off to a "very strong" start. To those economists and retail pundits that were buckled in for a bumpy ride to kick off the holiday shopping season, this is probably a big sign of relief. Yes, you can put those Pepto Bismol bottles down now, folks.
Although one report doesn't make a whole season better, the report from ShopperTrak estimated Black Friday sales this year up 8.3% over last year, with sales this past Friday alone totaling $10.3 billion from retail outlets across the U.S. ShopperTrak thought, as do I, that even in the face of rising energy prices and credit tightness due to risky loan defaults and mortgage resets, it takes a lot more than that for
consumers to curb holiday spending.The long haul now takes over, as estimates and details will pour in week by week through the Christmas holiday until it's very clear that the success from last week's Black Friday holiday spending kickoff will last all the way through December. Although today is Cyber Monday (when everyone begins shopping online at work), even online retailers saw excellent activity this past Friday. Visitors directed from www.shopping.com to its merchants increased 61% from 2006 levels, and
eBay (NASDAQ:
EBAY) even said that customers are picking up their computer mice more than their car keys. That makes for a nice quote more than it gives us meaningful data. We'll see if it stacks up after results come in from today's online shopping activity.
Posted Nov 24th 2007 11:10AM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Good news, Consumer Experience, Apple Inc (AAPL), Black Friday, Canada
The one word that describes the retail world coming in to yesterday's "Black Friday" is nervousness. Would the consumer pull-back on this season's shopping and would retailers suffer a terrible fate? Many big name "box" stores have already dropped their forecasts for the season and earnings expectations were lowered. Not so fast.
The consumer came out in droves yesterday, and in some cases even Thanksgiving night. The great Mall of America in suburban Minneapolis was abuzz from the get-go. I know because I was there.
The Mall of America has enough parking to accommodate 14,000 cars. When I arrived at the Mall with my 17-year-old daughter and her two friends, I knew things were good when I was directed to park my car a mile from the Mall and hop the shuttle bus.That's a good start. Before I did park in the remote area, I dropped off my daughter and drove around the parking garage. I wanted to see where these shoppers came from. I counted license plates from 21 different states and many from Canada as they sported the Ontario license plates.
Continue reading Black Friday was green!
Posted Nov 24th 2007 10:00AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: Getting Started, Columns, Black Friday, Comfort Zone Investing
Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he offers advice to investors who are just getting started.
Not funny, ha, ha. Funny as in odd. Stocks act differently between now and the beginning of next year. Some stocks move for no apparent reason. Others don't move even when news is good. Here are a few reasons why.
It's time for investors to take losses. And there are plenty of those in housing stocks, financials and biotechs. Other industries have been hit as well this year but those stand out. You'll see many of these stocks drift down over the next few weeks as investors dump them to either take a loss to balance against a gain or decide to move into other stocks, unless there's a specific announcement by a company that is good news. Even then, there may not be as strong a reponse as you'd expect.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Until January, funny things happen
Posted Nov 23rd 2007 1:00PM by Brent Archer (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, Good news, Industry, Target Corp. (TGT), Black Friday, Options, Technical Analysis
Target Corp. (NYSE:
TGT) shares have been soaring today. Traders seem to be excited as the start of the holiday shopping season sees many shoppers packing stores to buy discounted TVs, toys and electronics.
The entire retail industry is higher today, with TGT one of the biggest winners. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on TGT.
The stock hit its 52-week high of $70.75 in July and set its 52-week low of $50.25 in November. TGT opened this morning at $53.98. So far today the stock risen since the open and notched an intra-day high of $57.00. As of 12:15, TGT is trading at $56.99, up $2.89 (5.3%). The chart for TGT looks bearish and steady while
S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
Continue reading Target (TGT) soars on Black Friday
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