To paraphrase Mark Twain "The reports of our death are greatly exaggerated". The world economy has been in shambles for a few years now, and our nation has much work ahead of it. 2010 was an improvement over 2009 and I believe 2011 will show further improvement.

There are lots of ideas running through my mind as I consider where the economy might be heading in 2011. What opportunities lay in front of us waiting to be picked up or passed over? Just five trading days left, and market activity will slow down except among fund managers making adjustments for tax purposes or window dressing. You should examine your tax situation, too.

The list of stocks has been whittled down to four. Chevron Corporation (CVX) made the cut to become the oil company stock. Three defense sector powerhouses are competing for one spot in Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begin.

Today we take a more comprehensive view returning to earlier metrics, and adding some other criteria in order to reach a conclusion. This series began with the contention that making specific predictions was a fools errand with the danger to your portfolio coming from "black swans". To try and add some general counter measures to this possibility I decided that the defense and oil sectors might provide protection against the greatest of threats, war and terrorism. On that basis I posted Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety.

In the middle of the summer with the stock market smoldering from the economic aftershocks of the BP (BP) oil spill, I decided to post a contrarian story emphasizing a very common refrain among value investors, "my pal Warren" being head of the class: buy on fear (sell on greed). This notion is continuing to work for what I called the toxic stock portfolio.

This is the third update to my ranting five months ago that six of the most reviled and most highly traded stocks featured by daily bad press as a group would outperform the overall market. It has, with the big winner rising from being one of the biggest losers.

One month ago I stuck my neck out a ways by making the statement that EZCorp (EZPW) was a superior investment to the current market darling Apple Inc. (AAPL). Furthermore that was not the limit of my claim, I wrote it was 33 to 1 better -- that's a lot. Since I am a glutton for punishment, I always post my good and bad calls.

I will be following this idea for one, three, six, and 12 months, if reader interest remains, to see how things progress. EZCorp is one of my 2009 and 2010 stock pick winners and I will be sticking with it in 2011, as well. See Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begins.

The economic news out of Europe has strengthened the dollar and recast doubt on the euro. The demise of the Irish "domino" after the bailout of the Greek domino has formed clouds over the Portuguese and Spanish dominoes.

As fear grows, the European Bank is trying to build a buttress to hold up the dominoes. However, from the perspective of the Greek and Irish people the prescribed austerity measures employed is just foreign oppression and will not help their employment levels.

What this means to most investors is to run for the hills. What it means to this investor is watch closely for buying opportunities because bargains will be created by the fear -- for sure!

The stock markets' current doldrums can be linked to many causes, and each day pundits will throw out their notions for the day. On one such occasion I could not resist playing the spoiler (probably more than once) posting Chasing Value: Cisco Shmisco -- It's Nothing. But today I will rally behind Cisco Systems (CSCO) and the potential to make an easy 25% return -- or own it cheaper than cheap!

Cisco is currently trading near its 52-week low, opening Tuesday at $19.24. The range is $19.18 to $27.74, so it has fallen 30.6% from its high on a very modest 2010 and lackluster projections going forward. Seems to me everyone is zigging so it's time to zag -- or is it the other way around? Nevertheless, its time for action and opportunity.

Only one month ago, I reminded readers about one of the comeback stories of the last five years and maybe longer: Chasing Value: Newcastle Shares Flying off the Shelf. Newcastle Investment (NCT) reported good news, blasting past the few that bothered to make any earnings estimate with Q3 GAAP EPS $2.61 vs. consensus $0.33.

On October 7, 2010 NCT closed the day at $3.84. Now it is exactly one dollar higher trading at $4.84 or 26% (update: closing price $4.92) in a month! The story is worth checking out because even with all the good news, I think there is still plenty of room to run as the company heals itself over time.

This company has been on my recommended list for longer than any other company in the four and a half years that I have been writing for BloggingStocks -- with only one exception, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). The company is EZCorp (EZPW), which beat the Street again with third quarter earnings per share of $0.56, three cents better than the analyst estimate.

Revenue for the quarter was $198.2 million, which tops the estimate of $191.01 million. The company projects 2011 earnings higher too: EPS of about $2.35 vs. an estimate of $2.25. EZCorp grew earnings by 33% and increased its footprint by 127 stores through new construction and acquisitions.

Every day I marvel at all the silly things that happen in the marketplace, the missed opportunities and the overlooked bargains. Mini-mill steel company Nucor Corp. (NUE) is certainly one of them.

I understand that the construction industry is in the dumps and the auto industry has barely come back to life. There is no question that Nucor has fallen on tough times. However, that is what creates the investment opportunity. If you want to make a lot of money, you must find high-quality companies during their business lulls and not be afraid to put your money to work.

Yesterday I began a review of the five major U.S. defense contractors, searching for potential stock value. The group included General Dynamics (GD), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Boeing (BA), Northrop, Grumman (NOC) and Raytheon (RTN). After examining the P/E, PEG, P/CF, P/S, and P/B, Boeing did not make it through the screens.

Today I continue the exercise, hoping to find a stock worthy of placing a bet.

Dividend Yield

• Lockheed Martin: 3.77%
• Raytheon Company: 3.16%
• Northrop, Grumman: 2.89%
• General Dynamics: 2.59%

A very common refrain among value investors, "my pal Warren" being head of the class, is buy on fear (sell on greed), and it is working with the toxic stock portfolio.

This is the second update to my ranting twelve weeks ago that the six most highly traded stocks receiving the most bad press would be a great contrarian investment, and that this group would outperform the overall market without much difficulty.

It was true earlier, and it is still true today as the DJIA topped 11,000 again. The toxic stocks list includes Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), General Electric (GE), BP (BP), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Transocean (RIG).

One of my bargain basement stock picks (thank you Sir John Templeton) is flying off the shelf today and has been for a month. Newcastle Investment Corp. (NCT) was one of last years successful picks. It is trading up today almost 10% as I write this at 3:30 PM, EDT

I have written before about picking up this as a penny stock for 60 cents a share amidst the market panic of days gone by, now sitting on over 500% gains, and still counting as the stock is currently trading at $3.77 -- yikes! . (update: $3.84 +11.95% final)

I rarely dabble in penny stocks but Newcastle is a CMBS player with very diversified real estate interests that I have been following since it was trading near $20 per share and paying a double digit yield.

Muriel Siebert, often known as the First Woman of Finance, has long been an advocate for the individual investor. Now, two years after the collapse of Lehman, she says that there is still a great deal that needs to be done so that investors can make educated investments.

Siebert, also known by her nickname "Mickie," has a great deal of perspective on these matters. She is the former Superintendent of Banks in the State of New York, the first woman to buy a seat on the NYSE, one of the earliest creators of a discount brokerage firm, plus a former money manager.

Last week's Barron's (Sept. 6) was full of great stock insights and the favorable reports on Noble Corp. (NE) and Raytheon Company (RTN) were well articulated. Often you hear that by the time the news hits the streets, it's too late to get in on the bargain. This is a myth; both of these stocks are good examples proving the point because they were bargains before the stories were published and remain so today.

This is not to say that a broadly published story will not have an impact on the stock price -- it may. However, there is not a one to one correlation and there are many other factors to weigh. Also, given the number of financial publications, blogs, press releases, analysts calls and more, almost every company's stock is in the news, if not daily then weekly.

The tail-end summer heat has been heavily attributable to the mergers and acquisitions blaze. Companies are putting their cash to work on public companies fetching discounted equity prices in a market environment favoring safety (e.g., gold and bonds).

Recently, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) edged out Dell (DELL) for the 3Par deal award. With an eye toward the future, HP displayed their powerful desire to own a piece of the data storage and cloud computing pie. Since Dell ended empty-handed, it's only a matter of time before the next stock is a tech heavyweight's prime target.