Alcoa Inc. (AA) said Monday it turned a first-quarter profit on stronger sales at higher prices that were offset by a weaker dollar and higher costs for energy and raw materials.

Alcoa said business improved from a range of customers, including aerospace, automotive, commercial transportation and packaging industries. It marked the fourth consecutive quarterly profit for Alcoa as it pulled out of two difficult years hit by the recession.

The Pittsburgh aluminum manufacturer also expects business to continue to improve, reaffirming its forecast of a 12 percent increase in global aluminum demand this year.

As I outlined in January, industrial bellwether Alcoa (AA) is starting to signal better quarters ahead for the U.S. economy. Alcoa's sales will likely increase 10% to 13% in 2011, after a 14% surge in 2010, the latter albeit against an easy comparison.

Further, U.S. auto sales are likely to rise 10% to 13% this year, and the housing sector could squeeze out a modest uptrend in new home sales, if a better second-half performance materializes, as expected. This is all good news for aluminum sales and AA. Another positive: The price of aluminum should rise in 2011 on adequate global demand and falling inventories.

Alcoa (AA) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina. The company has a significant presence in all segments of the aluminum industry and operates in more than 31 countries worldwide. The company competes with other international metals and mining giants like Rusal, Rio Tinto (RTP), BHP Billiton (BHP) and Chalco (ACH).

The company recently released its Q4 2010 earnings, and we have updated our price estimate to $17.68 based on a reduction in total debt, an increase in revenues from better product pricing and better cash management leading to cost savings.

Primary Metals the Biggest Driver of Value

The primary metals division produces primary aluminum used by Alcoa's fabricating businesses, and it is sold to external customers, aluminum traders and on commodity markets. While our analysis shows that it was Alcoa's most valuable division in terms of contributor to shareholder's income, we have further increased our estimates for the overall value of the division going forward.

Aluminum prices have increased over the last two years since their sudden decline from peak prices in mid-2008. The 13% increase in global aluminum prices in 2010 has been directly responsible for the observed increase in the division's revenue.

We capture the impact of the aluminum prices on Alcoa's revenues in our forecast for the yearly average price of primary metals.

With demand for aluminum predicted to increase from 10-15% in developing countries like China, South Korea, Thailand and India, Alcoa's estimate of a 12% growth rate for 2011 is well justified. We believe that the demand growth will increase Alcoa's revenue per ton of aluminum sold to as high as $3,400 in coming years from its current value of about $2,500.

See the complete $17.68 Trefis Price estimate for Alcoa's stock.

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U.S. stock futures are higher Monday morning as investors await economic data and earnings reports. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3 points to 11,778 and S&P 500 futures rose 2.30 points to 1,274. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 5 points to 2,273.

Negative sentiment ruled the European markets today. While STOXX Europe 600 Index has dropped 0.52%, London's FTSE 100 Index moved down 0.38%.

Asian markets ended mostly lower, with Japan's Nikkei Stock Average dropping 1.18%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 declining 0.46% and China's Shanghai Composite rising 1.38%.

The DJIA came within striking distance of 12,000 today. There was no major economic data and it is another melt-up rally. The news comes despite rising rate trends in China and India and despite the trends of inflation. It also comes in light of a Moscow, Russia airport bombing that killed more than 30 people.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 11,980.52 +108.68 (0.92%)
S&P 500 1,290.84 +7.49 (0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,717.55 +28.01 (1.04%)

Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

Readers of this space known that the investment strategy preferred here favors large-cap companies with demonstrated business in established markets, and with the aforementioned in mind, Alcoa Inc. (AA) is worth a review.

Industrial bellwether Alcoa is starting to signal "better quarters ahead" for the U.S. economy. Alcoa beat the fourth quarter Thomson Reuters First Call earnings estimate by 2 cents, earning 21 cents, and if the company's sales increase trend continues, look for a 10% to 13% revenue gain in 2011, after a 12% to 14% surge in 2010.

Thursday saw seasonality make for a weak jobs report, some manufacturing data came in lower than expected and the rate of wholesale inflation looks to be perking up if you include food and energy. A surprise rate hike from South Korea also took the headlines away from the E.U. and U.K. central banks keeping rates unchanged. Even Ben Bernanke being more confident and calling for 3% to 4% GDP growth in 2011 failed to bring new buyers. The DJIA was weaker than most indexes up until the end of the today.

Here are Thursday's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 11,731.90 -23.54 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 1,283.76 -2.20 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,735.29 -2.04 (-0.07%)

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades

A slight economic upgrade from the Federal Reserve met higher commodity and higher equity prices today. The reality is that most equity markets were up around the globe today as investors are getting more of an appetite for risk. Even a Freddie Mac outlook for 2011 with higher interest rates and a 'narrower' budget deficit of $80 billion in December failed to temper optimism.

Here are the unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 11,755.44 +83.56 (0.72%)
S&P 500 1,285.96 +11.48 (0.90%)
Nasdaq 2,737.33 +20.50 (0.75%)

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades

Tuesday was an up-day on most index readings as earnings season gets further underway. The notion that there are no blow-ups so far is helping to ease some fears of the cautious bulls. A private placement from Portugal also may have helped out even if that is more cause of concern longer-term. Another snow storm is about to shut down the Eastern Seaboard all over again. These are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones: 11,671.81 +34.36 (0.30%)
S&P 500: 1,274.47 +4.72 (0.37%)
Nasdaq: 2,716.83 +9.03 (0.33%)

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades

Analyst Upgrades

• Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Fluor (FLR) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Macy's (M) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ), JA Solar (JASO) and HeartWare (HTWR) to buy from hold at Auriga.
• Ashford Hospitality (AHT) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• RenaissanceRe (RNR) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• DCT Industrial (DCT) to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) and Silver Standard (SSRI) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Weatherford (WFT), Hercules (HERO), GulfMark Offshore (GLF), Tidewater (TDW) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to buy from hold, and Diamond Offshore (DO) to hold from underperform, at Jefferies.
• Ritchie Bros. (RBA) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• AstraZeneca (AZN) to buy from hold at Citigroup.

Aluminum prices have jumped 38% since July. Currently, prices are hovering around $2,400 to $2,500 per metric ton and are expected to rise to $2,700 a metric ton.

Demand is growing from countries in the Middle East and Latin America. Both growing demand and higher prices were good news for Alcoa (AA)

Alcoa's fourth quarter profit was $258 million or 24 cents a share, compared with last year's loss of $277 million or 28 cents per share. Sales grew 4% to $5.65 billion.

U.S. stock futures are lower Monday morning. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 39 points to 11,580.00 and S&P 500 index futures fell 6.50 points to 1,261.50. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 7.75 points to 2,265.25.

U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, with the blue-chip Dow index dropping 22.55 points, or 0.19%.

No major economic data are due to be released today.

Alcoa (AA), Intel (INTC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) will kick off a new earnings season this week when they report their results for the fourth quarter of 2010. Here's a quick look at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect to see, followed by a glance at what's coming up on the economic calendar.

Alcoa

During its fourth quarter, Alcoa saw increased demand in emerging markets, sold surplus properties, and shared revenue targets with investors. Analysts forecast that earnings for the period will come to 19 cents per share, up from just a penny per share in the same quarter of last year. The New York-based aluminum producer also is expected to post revenue of $5.7 billion for the three months that ended in December, which is 4.5% more than a year earlier.

Analyst Upgrades

• TCF Financial (TCB) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Exelon (EXC) to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Nvidia (NVDA) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Estee Lauder (EL) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Webster Financial (WBS) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Skilled Healthcare (SKH) to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.
• Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• NCR Corp. (NCR) to outperform from neutral at Wedbush.
• Barnes & Noble (BKS) to neutral from underperform and Pioneer Natural (PXD) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Autodesk (ADSK) to buy from neutral at Goldman.

Analyst Upgrades

• Boeing (BA) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Alcoa (AA) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• BP (BP) to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.
• Office Depot (ODP) and Staples (SPLS) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• ON Semiconductor (ONNN) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Kennametal (KMT) and Polyone (POL) to buy from hold at KeyBanc.
• Airgas (ARG) to outperform from market perform at William Blair.
• EchoStar (SATS) to neutral from underperform at Macquarie.