Michael Shulman
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Monetary neurotics, led by the polite, appealing and economically brain-damaged Ron Paul, believe the U.S. dollar is dead because of our growing debt and the Fed running the printing presses, which must lead to inflation, which, in turn, will kill the dollar. Recent falls in the dollar seem to confirm this, uh, shibboleth (look it up again) of the monetary right.

In actuality, though, the dollar is no weaker than it was a few years ago. And it is the only currency in the world for the foreseeable -- and I mean long-term foreseeable -- future that can serve as a reserve currency due not just to our economic and political power, but our political system.

This is a cornerstone of the Fed, a true shibboleth (Google that one). But one of the first set of bonds the Fed bought under the TALF program were bonds backed by motorcycle loans made by Harley-Davidson (HOG) to its customers.

The Fed program was designed to provide loans and capital to businesses that were shut out of frozen credit markets, which is a good thing. But loans to Harley made to boost the sale of motorcycles to people who could not get loans elsewhere?

With 70% of the GDP driven by consumer spending, Wall Street wants to believe this lie so badly that it has convinced itself it's true. Even worse-than-expected Black Friday sales haven't forced the Street to give up this inane hope.

Real consumer wealth is down more than 40% in the past two years; credit is contracting and unemployment is rising. That is not exactly the recipe for increased consumer spending.

The headline consensus on Wall Street is that the banks are stable and no markets are melting down. In short, things are returning to normal.

But we've seen a $1.5 trillion reduction in consumer credit during the past 18 months, and another $1 trillion (at least) is likely to be pulled back in the coming year, according to uber-analyst Meredith Whitney -- someone I wouldn't bet against. And almost no one is getting a home equity line.

Moody's reported that the rate of defaults on home mortgages has fallen to roughly 6.5% of all mortgages, and that the number will be slightly lower throughout 2010. They neglected to mention that the historical default rate is one-third that, or that the 2010 default rate on mortgages will be 300% higher than the historical rate.

Housing sales in 2010 will be worse than expected, and home prices will continue to fall as more and more foreclosed homes enter the market. There are currently more than 800,000 foreclosed houses that the banks have yet to put on the market, and another 1.5 million homes are expected to go into foreclosure in the next 18 months.

Sure the unemployment rate fell from 10.2% in October to 10% in November, but the November data (and the December number when it is reported) are hopelessly skewed by seasonal adjustments. And another statistical adjustment, known as the birth/death adjustment, assumed 800,000 new jobs were created this year by the birth of companies compared to the number of jobs lost due to the death of companies.

Really? If it were not so sad, it would be funny.

The recession "officially" ended in the third quarter with 3.5% GDP growth. Time to start celebrating, right? Not so fast.

Analyst and editor of Shadow Government Statistics, John Williams, wrote: "The estimate of 3.5% annualized real growth for third-quarter GDP included a 1.7% gain from auto sales, a 0.6% gain from new residential construction, and a 0.9% gain from a largely involuntary inventory buildup, which appears to be understated. ... In aggregate, those one-time stimulus or inventory items represented 92% of the reported quarterly growth."

Earlier in the year, U.S. lawmakers and financial companies pressured the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) into changing its rules to help out the banks. "Changes to fair-value, or mark-to-market accounting ... allow companies to use 'significant' judgment in gauging prices of some investments on their books, including mortgage-backed securities," wrote Bloomberg.

"Significant judgment" really meant "whatever the hell the banks wanted to do." And these are the same banks whose "judgment" led them to buy toxic assets in the first place and took the world to the brink of financial collapse.

"The effect of this capital assessment will be to help replace uncertainty with transparency. ... We chose a strategy to lift the fog of uncertainty over bank balance sheets and to help ensure that the major banks, individually and collectively, had the capital to continue lending even in a worse-than-expected recession." -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, May 2009

These tests did NOT bring transparency to the banking sector. They were practically designed to prove the banks were fine, and simply ignored off-balance-sheet and other dodgy assets. It was as if they were saying, "We will do whatever it takes (even lie) to make sure the big banks do not fail since Congress won't give us more money to fix them."

The market staged an impressive rally this year, but it was predicated on some very big lies, as opposed to solid fundamentals or the beginnings of a real recovery in the U.S. economy.

The biggest lie investors were fed? That, statistically, the recession "officially" ended in Q3 when we saw 3.5% GDP growth. Sure the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised their number substantially in November, saying we only saw 2.8% growth, but this was growth nonetheless ... according to the statistics.

The biggest bunch of turkeys out there is homebuilders (actually, a group of turkeys is known as a rafter or gang).

President Obama just signed the Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009 into law, which renewed the first-time homebuyer tax credit until next April. This bill also gives tax breaks to big companies to offset losses in the past two years, and the homebuilders will be among the biggest beneficiaries. Looks like Congress found another great way to spend our tax dollars!

Retailers are going to struggle this holiday season -- and the Street simply does not care. While retail sales figures for October exceeded expectations, by historical standards, they were awful, and economists don't expect a robust holiday shopping season. But the market seems to be anticipating a holiday surprise, as retail ETFs are all up.

The retail sector is fundamentally unsound, yet technically flying, so take advantage of Wall Street's misplaced optimism with the Retail HOLDRs (RTH).

The Yankees are led by a core of four men -- Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera -- who all came to the club in 1995.

They're no spring chickens, that's for sure. Thankfully, the players are supported by a great organization, which includes top-notch medical care, oftentimes right there in the clubhouse, which is equipped with X-ray and sonogram equipment.

New York and Philadelphia have some of the most hardcore fans in Major League Baseball. These fans don't just get excited about a game as big as the World Series, they get stressed out.

And stress isn't good for anyone's health, and neither are the hot dogs New York fans will gorge themselves on, or the cheese steaks the Philadelphia fans will wolf down. Plus, fans in both cities are going to be washing that heart-attack-waiting-to-happen chow down with too much beer. No doubt many of them will be suffering from sleep apnea.

Do you see a rebound?

The Mall of America would be a great practice field for the Minnesota Vikings, fall and winter clothes are already 40% off at Macy's, and the Palms in Vegas is mailing me coupons.

Recently, I went out to eat with some friends: One owns a construction business that has come to a standstill; two are media types out of work; and one is the owner of a small manufacturing company, who is laying people off as fast as she can and is now worried about her own survival. And I'm sure you've heard similar tales of woes from your family, friends and neighbors.