Bruce Watson
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Next year's investment plan: What Obama's green energy economy might portend
Over the past few months, as election rhetoric heated up and the economy has cooled, one of Barack Obama's recurring themes has been that the secret to America's future will be the development of an alternative-energy economy. To a populace that has grown increasingly weary of the lackadaisical government approach to economic disaster, this has been particularly galvanizing, and was undoubtedly a major influence on the election. Now that Obama has won, however, the next question is how he will transform those exciting New Deal-esque words into concrete action.
John Podesta, co-chairman of the Obama/Biden transition team, may provide a useful insight into this question. In his day job, Podesta is president of the Center for American Progress (CAP), a liberal think tank that is based in Washington D.C. CAP has already drafted a green-energy stimulus plan; with several programs that are ready to go, it would create 2 million jobs, and would cost a relatively meager $50 billion. While there is no guarantee that CAP's plan will be adopted, given Podesta's proximity to the presidency, it seems likely that at least part of it will become reality within the next year. For a savvy investor, this could be a blueprint for industries that are, potentially, poised to explode with a massive influx of new funds.
Green Autos: Obama has made it very clear that he intends to directly tie any automotive bailout to the development of green technologies. CAP's plan calls for a 4% per year increase in fuel-efficiency standards, as well as investment in new battery technology for plug-in hybrids. With this in mind, it's worth seriously considering which automakers are best poised to go forth with more fuel-efficient models. Furthermore, programs like CAP's "Cash for Clunkers" could be a major boon for companies that process or deal in recycled metals.
Continue reading Next year's investment plan: What Obama's green energy economy might portend
Playboy's economic indicator: The Playmate Index
Recently, various writers have been alluding to Terry Pettijohn's now-mythical survey of the relationship between Playboy Playmates and the economy. Pettijohn's argument is that, as times get tougher, male concepts of beauty shift toward more mature, stable-looking women who are older, taller, and less curvy. Conversely, in boom times, the woman of choice would be shorter, younger, and more hourglass-shaped.While my knowledge of Playboy Playmates was once disturbingly encyclopedic, I have to admit that I have been out of the game for quite some time now. That said, I'd have to question Professor Pettijohn's methodology, if only for the fact that the Playboy ideal has shown far less fluctuation over the years than society at large. To put it bluntly, many of the heroin addict-thin models that grace the pages of women's fashion magazines would never be allowed within arm's length of a Playboy pictorial. Like the Rockettes, Playmates have traditionally remained within a comfortably healthy median, neither ballerina scrawny nor fully zaftig.
Now, arguably, there could be some comparisons drawn between economic boom/bust cycles and the shapes of women's bodies. Certainly, the androgynous flapper look of the 1920's, the Twiggy look of the 1960's, and the starvation victim/heroin addict look of the late 1990's/early 2000's are somewhat comparable. Similarly, the hourglass 1940's, 1950's, and 1980's have similar style cues. While it would be silly to take these comparisons to extremes, fashion goes in cycles, and those cycles overlap somewhat with the economy. However, this is far from a direct confluence; the 1930's look, for example, was still boyish, and our current ultra-thin look has been developing for quite some time.
Continue reading Playboy's economic indicator: The Playmate Index
Up and down in the stock market: The sad saga of trader #804
It seems like it happened years ago, but it's been only about a month since Wall Street had its huge, post-plummet surge. Touting it as the biggest one-day point gain in the history of the market, newspapers around the country featured pictures of financial industry professionals grinning and bouncing, hugging each other like it was V-J day and they were all unwed nurses wearing fresh lipstick. In The New York Daily News, the stock market dancing monkey du Jour was a red-headed guy with a close-cropped hairdo, extravagant sideburns, and the standard blue trader's jacket. In picture after picture, the paper featured him leering, giving a thumbs-up, and hugging a burly fellow trader who was a dead-ringer for actor Michael Lerner.
At the time, I heaped scorn upon the head of the poor unknown trader, mocking his excessive enthusiasm, mildly frightening grin, and overall air of mindless faith in the system. Being something of a cynic, I knew that today's high would be almost matched by tomorrow's low, which would be followed by another dizzying high, and so on as the market tried to find equilibrium. I saw the redheaded trader's excessive enthusiasm as indicative of the kind of cocksure investing that got us into this mess in the first place.
Continue reading Up and down in the stock market: The sad saga of trader #804
Investing in a bipolar market: Take another peek at staples
Almost a year ago, when Steve Halpern suggested that investors take a second look at Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), he offered a very sound argument: the manufacturer had a strong domestic and international presence, was trading well and -- perhaps most importantly -- was heavily involved in staples. Over the ensuing year, Halpern's advice has proven to be pretty strong. In fact, on September 29, when the bottom was falling out of the market, P&G was one of the three stocks in the S&P 500 that fell the least. P&G, as well as the other two stocks that fell the least, Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) and Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE), and the one S&P stock that actually rose, Campbell Soup Company (NYSE: CPB) have a few things in common. First off, they all are connected to products that make people feel safe. These sorts of brands (which Kevin Roberts calls Lovemarks) are almost recession-proof. When things get bad and people lose faith in the market, they experience an ever-greater desire to reach for a Coke and a smile, grab a bowl of "Mmm! Mmm! Good!" Campbell's soup and eat a plate of Kraft Macaroni and Cheese. Given their ability to evoke memories of a comforting childhood, these mid-level brands will often experience an uptick in troubling times.
The other thing that all these companies have in common is that they are staples. In boom times, people tend to eat out more, subcontract cleaning and laundry services, and try pricier, upscale brands. In tougher times, however, the tendency to eat in and do one's own laundry means that companies like Kraft, Coca-Cola and P&G may actually find themselves in a better financial position. This isn't to say that staples don't have ups and downs, but rather that their fluctuations tend to be less severe -- and they sometimes even buck the prevailing market trends!
Boxing on Wall Street: Wouldn't you love to watch traders get beaten?
Over the past few weeks, as the full dimensions of the economic meltdown have come into focus, most analysts have concluded that the financial crisis is the child of numerous parents, including predatory lenders, deregulating legislators, and excessively optimistic borrowers. Even so, the vast majority of the responsibility has managed to attach itself to the financial industry. While taking the blame for tanking the economy, establishing Republican socialism, and possibly destroying Western Civilization, Wall Street has had its own problems. As the major players in the financial industry have crashed and burned or been eaten up by other, lesser players, the streets have been filled with the saddest form of performance art. Once arrogant masters who strode the universe on the southern end of Manhattan have become masters of the cardboard box, carrying their personals home to overpriced condos that were purchased at the height of a real-estate boom. The dive in the housing market, which has already hurt so much of the country, has only threatened New York; right now, fingers are crossed from TriBeCa to Harlem.
In the midst of this, Doubledown Media held its annual Wall Street Boxing Charity Championship in New York's Hammerstein ballroom. Admission prices ranged from $125 for general seating to $10,000 for a ringside table, and the event raised money for two charities: a youth village in Rwanda and Tuesday's Children, an organization that serves the families of 9/11 victims. The fight card featured professionals from some of Wall Street's biggest names; for anybody who is particularly interested, the winners included a guy from Deutsche Bank, a guy from Citi, and a guy from the NYMEX. The guy from Morgan Stanley lost in a decision.
Continue reading Boxing on Wall Street: Wouldn't you love to watch traders get beaten?
Makeover needed: Amtrak
This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover. See all 26.
While issues like the economy and the war in Iraq dominate the current election, one lesser theme has largely gone unnoticed by the mainstream media. Often, while discussing his middle-class origins and lifestyle, Joe Biden points out that he regularly rides an Amtrak train to and from his home in Delaware. By comparison, John McCain has been an outspoken opponent of Amtrak, voting to cut the rail provider's budget and stating that he would shut it down if he became president.
It's easy to understand Senator McCain's dislike of the train line. I have ridden Amtrak for years, and have often found it to be slow, filthy, and surprisingly expensive. The dining cars are overpriced and generally missing at least a few items, the staff is often rude and uncommunicative, and there are many places where the line seems to run as a local commuter rail, seriously slowing down travel time. Based on Amtrak's current level of service, it's not hard to understand why Senator McCain is calling for an end to the company.
The thing is, Amtrak doesn't have to be like this. In riding trains throughout Europe, I have generally found rail travel to be clean, efficient, and utterly enjoyable. Admittedly, I was once on a Polish train that asked the passengers to help move a tree that had fallen across the track, but the train's employees and service staff also gave us free drinks and snacks, so I feel like things evened out. Beyond that, the club cars were well-stocked, the bathrooms were usually spotless, and the staff was friendly.
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Wall Street's meltdown: In search of a villain
The first struggle has been to come up with a name for the Wall Street meltdown (I still like "Bernanke Panky"). However, as that plays out, it's time to begin finding a villain to blame. This is tremendously important stuff. For history to be written, complex events must be boiled down to a single cause, preferably an individual who can take responsibility for everything. For example, as every schoolchild knows, LBJ caused Vietnam, Hoover caused the Great Depression, and Nixon caused Watergate. Never mind that these men were the products of their ages or that history is a complex process. Children need villains, history demands explanations, and Americans crave resolution. Never mind that millions of homeowners signed up for mortgages that they couldn't pay, that millions of investors blindly purchased worthless securities, and that the groundwork for this disaster was laid by Democrats and Republicans demonstrating an impressive, albeit bipartisan, ignorance. History must be written and blame must be laid. Chances are, it will end up falling on one of the following people:
Continue reading Wall Street's meltdown: In search of a villain
Forget Wall Street; what about Lujiazui? Cities fight to become the next New York
In the wake of Wall Street's recent tumble, several cities have started vying for New York's position as the center of worldwide finance. In Shanghai, for example, some investors have noted that, in spite of the city's relative inexperience in the world of high finance, it is swimming in cash. Tokyo, meanwhile, is working on rearranging its regulatory structure in an attempt to make its markets more attractive to international investors.Perhaps the most interesting competitor for the throne of worldwide financial center is Dubai. Currently in the middle of a massive construction boom, the city has taken a variety of steps to make itself attractive to foreign workers, including relaxing Islamic law and creating so-called "free zones," where taxes are greatly reduced. On the other hand, Dubai has a mean humidity of over 60% and several months where the average temperatures top 100° F. Of course, if everything was based on climate, the worldwide financial center would probably be in the South of France!
While it's hard to imagine New York ceding its position at the heart of worldwide finance, the same could once have been said of Venice or London. The one constant in world history is that nothing lasts forever, and countries that fail to remain competitive do so at their peril. While we wait to see the future of New York, I'm going to try to imagine Jim Cramer in a keffiyah!
The (bad) luck of the Irish Republican Army: Guess who invested in subprimes?
I've always imagined that one of the great joys of belonging to a Socialist group would be not worrying about the well-nigh incomprehensible fluctuations of the stock market. While other people may lose sleep over the screaming highs and soul-crushing lows of the capitalist economies, hard-core socialists just have to worry about plebian things like political purity, the potato harvest, and whether or not the shops currently have razor blades in stock.With that in mind, I feel somewhat sorry for the Provisional Irish Republican Army. While they rejected the Communist tendencies of the "Official" IRA in the 1960's, they still self-identified as a "non-Marxist Democratic Socialist" organization. However, when they signed a ceasefire in 1997, they rebelled against this identity and invested their funds in the property market and, subsequently, in high-high-dividend deposit accounts in the U.S. According to some reports, Wall Street's recent meltdown may have cost the former terrorist group as much as $274 million.
Needless to say, IRA financial advisors are currently "in a state of panic," as they are watching their funding (and potential political power) evaporate. There is no word yet on whether or not Baader-Meinhof, Shining Path, or Black September were invested in the market!
What keeps the Dow Jones up? Happy thoughts
The cover of today's New York Daily News loudly proclaimed the joy and wonder, the shock and awe of yesterday's Wall Street rally. Right beside the headline, in the middle of a huge red arrow marked "Dow soars to biggest point gain in history," the paper presented a picture of a trader, both thumbs up, sporting a cocky, devil-may-care smile. Inside, the paper carried another shot of its leering cover boy, this time accompanied by another trader sporting a mindless grin.It was hardly necessary to read the accompanying article, as the pictures told the whole tale: the stock market, after plummeting for a few days, more or less hit bottom. Other countries started pouring money into their banks, calming the panic, and enabling investors to remember that the paper they were passing back and forth sometimes represented actual value. When this happened, the investors proceeded to start buying some of their stock back at ever-increasing rates, causing the Dow Jones index to rapidly rise. Of course, the next few acts in this play are equally obvious: the market will continue to fluctuate as irrational exuberance and irrational caution trade places and seek equilibrium in the Wall Street version of manic depression.
For some people, the wild fluctuations of the market will translate into equally wild emotional rides. In the United States, the land where Calvinism never died, wealth is still considered a sign of rectitude and poverty a mark of weakness. It naturally follows, then, that the relative ebb and flow of our economic fortunes will translate into a similar roller coaster of pride and self-doubt. One need look no further than the cover of the Daily News to see a man who takes responsibility for the strength of the market and, presumably, blames himself for its failings. As stock market players continue to confuse knowledge of the market with the ability to control it, their sense of self will rise and fall with its fluctuations.
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'Crash-and-burn economy?' 'Bailout beer bust?' What should we call America's economic disaster?
Over the past few years, the line between news and spin has grown thinner and thinner, to the point that it is no longer visible, even with the most advanced scientific instruments. In fact, according to most physicists, the line can only be detected by the infinitesimal gravitational pull that it seems to exert on surrounding particles, like faith in democracy, trust in authority figures, governmental accountability, and the inexplicable popularity of Perez Hilton. As a consequence, real-life causes and effects, decisionmakers and victims pale beside the far flashier waves that rustle through the covers of magazines and the ranks of the punditry. In the end, the past few presidents have demonstrated that truth is less important than "truthiness" and events are less important than titles.
In this spirit, the time has come to put a name on the economy's current crisis. As some talking heads have already noted, the Bush administration made a major mistake by allowing the term "bailout" to define the government's response to the economic meltdown. John McCain proposed the term "rescue," which sounds far more noble, while Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson suggested calling it the "Troubled Asset Relief Program," presumably hoping that a really boring title would make taxpayers forget about the issue. Using the same logic, petty thieves are now lobbying to have the term "pickpocketing" replaced with the monicker "involuntary, extralegal, above-market thigh massage."
Does Wall Street own Paulson? The conspiracy theories start to emerge
Wow. Did I miss something? Weren't Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke just saying that a bailout is the only thing that will save the economy from a catastrophic meltdown? Now, apparently, some financial companies have determined that a full-scale collapse of the U.S. economy is preferable to leaving a job without sufficient bonuses and separation packages. Rather than tell the heads of these companies to stick it in their ears, however, Secretary Paulson is suggesting that America's taxpayers need to cave in to their demands. This seems so amazingly shortsighted, so incredibly illogical that I began to wonder if there might not be another reason that the Secretary of the Treasury is demanding what seems to be tantamount to financial blackmail.
Howard Rodman suggested a bizarre scenario: he theorizes that Secretary Paulson left his job as CEO of Goldman Sachs in anticipation of this crisis. Hank then went to work for the Treasury in order to orchestrate a major rescue of Wall Street. Having coerced the Federal Government into buying billions of dollars of worthless securities with minimal oversight and provisions, he would subsequently return to Goldman Sachs where, presumably, he would be heavily rewarded for his good work in betraying the public trust.
Continue reading Does Wall Street own Paulson? The conspiracy theories start to emerge
Today on Wall Street: An eerie calm
My wife works in New York's financial district; today, during a mid-morning phone call, she told me that I might want to come down to check out Wall Street, as there seemed to be a protest brewing near the Stock Exchange. Intrigued, I hurried south, only to find a collection of news trucks parked near a half-hearted group of Lyndon LaRouche picketers. The dazed and confused political cultists clogged the sidewalk, passing out inflammatory pamphlets and vainly tried to bait passers-by into a battle in the streets or, barring that, at least a nice, camera-ready slap fight.Walking down Wall Street, I noticed that it was actually a pleasant, relaxed day. The sun was shining and, in spite of the fall chill in the air, everything seemed bright and calm. I spied a herd of tourists excitedly shooting pictures outside the JP Morgan building and wondered if this was the big protest that my wife had talked about. When I got closer, I discovered that they were only taking snapshots of each other. Suddenly, I realized what was wrong.
While Carl Sandburg dubbed Chicago the "City of the big shoulders," Wall Street's combination of narrow alleys and self-obsessed go-getters makes it the rudest place on earth. On any given day, at any given hour, the streets are filled with traders, analysts, brokers, people on the rise, and people on the way down, all poking elbows and slamming shoulders. Testosterone, as much as money, fuels this place, and the crowds generally exude more of it than the famous bull statue in the middle of Broadway, the totem whose gleaming, swollen sack many of the financial employees rub for luck.
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Going down in flames: Capitalism, American-style
Last week, I wrote a post about why people might want to be careful about dumping all of their money into commodities like gold, silver and oil. In response, one of my readers suggested that the best solution to the current economic crisis would be to round up the richest people in the country, take all of their money, take all but one of their homes, and give each one $1 million to start over. As my reader pointed out, this would save 90% of the country, while only robbing 1,000 people of their wealth, property and civil rights. As a sop, he suggested that we give the formerly rich folk a lifetime exemption from all property taxes.I initially dismissed this as ridiculous, overblown nonsense. After all, robbing people of their personal property is the kind of thing that the Communists did when they took over Russia. As much as I might despise our latter-day kulaks, I simply couldn't justify this kind of blow against free enterprise and the rule of law. Then, of course, the federal government started getting into the nationalization game and I found myself wondering what the difference is between a socialist solution that robs from the rich and a supposedly capitalist structure that taxes the middle class in order to subsidize the rich. I feel like I'll have an answer to that question somewhere around April 15.
By now, we all know a fair bit about what's happened on Wall Street over the past few weeks; what eludes us is finding a way to fix it. Logic would seem to dictate that we need to close the book on our brief exercise in deregulation, chalking it up as a bad idea. While we're at it, we should probably think about re-instituting FDR's Home Owners Loan Corporation, a New Deal program that helped millions of people refinance their mortgages and keep their homes. By the time it ended, the HOLC had turned a small profit. More importantly, it had kept people in their houses, paying their mortgages. This, in turn, helped stabilize banks and the larger economy.
Continue reading Going down in flames: Capitalism, American-style
Meltdown: Why you might not want to dump everything into gold
Although, in the interests of total disclosure, I should point out that my wife, who works down the street from the Stock Exchange, DID recently see the four horsemen of the apocalypse sipping coffee beverages in a Starbucks. Famine, ironically, was wolfing down coffee cake like Michael Phelps on weed.
At any rate, the last few days has witnessed people running for safe bets like oil, gold, and silver. This makes a lot of sense; when things get tough, people want to put their money into things that they can see and feel. Gold feels solid, as does silver, and oil isn't likely to drop anytime soon. Like people hoarding diamonds in times of turmoil, commodities just seem really secure.
Continue reading Meltdown: Why you might not want to dump everything into gold
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