For the most part, this year has portrayed itself as a stock picker's market. If the stock you happened to pick was Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included for fun because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one.
The average of my seven picks fell as dramatically in November as it rose in October, reflecting the ebb and flow of the Chinese market. James Cramer's average based on his nine picks sank as well, but not as much. While Cramer managed to stay ahead of all the indices, and I beat the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 and marginally beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average, I lost out to the NASDAQ and the average of the three.
Last month, after reporting spectacular gains, I remained realistic when posting "Of course, this could easily change given recent market volatility. A sharp downturn in the market could reverse our fortunes. A lot can happen in the remaining two months -- I take nothing for granted."
Yes, Google has done well, but Cramer's best, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has done much better. It seems to be priced for perfection, as they say, but it also seems to be achieving it so far on the wings of the iPhone, iPod, and growing Mac sales. Warren Buffett voiced his opinion that the Chinese market has gotten bloated, and PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR), while still up significantly, dropped back off its all-time highs after becoming the second-largest capitalized company in the world.
The stock market has been volatile this fall, but has been showing signs of life recently amid anticipation of another cut in the interest rates by the Federal Reserve Board tomorrow. Most of what I have read has assumed the Fed will cut another half-point on Tuesday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is within striking price of its all-time high above 14,000, reached late last July.
November was somber, taking financials, housing, and construction down and deflating the Chinese markets. December is already retracing some of November's give-backs. Consumer spending still seems to be tepid, so it must be the holiday spirit of the federal government that has the market bulls in high spirits. Earnings reports have been mixed, and will not begin again in "earnest" until next month. Year-end planning has made me tardy in completing this post. I like to get it done in the first few days of the month.
Summary of Results:
- Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), like most everything, was down in November but started climb back. It is still a favorite on Wall Street. Few investors have even paused to take a breath in October. GOOG closed at $707, for a solid +52.85% gain through the first 10 months of the year, holding the top spot again, and by a widening margin.
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Jim Cramer's average return on his nine picks was 12.45% over the 11 months, beating the Standard & Poor's index, the DJIA and the NASDAQ, and changing positions with me this month. Adding the dividend portion of 0.6% (0.66% x 0.916), brings Cramer's gain to +13.05%. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) was his best pick again. All the new products and software launches, plus the continuation of current products and programs, almost assure that 2007 will another one for Apple's record books.
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All of the indices lost ground in November, with the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P all dropping. The Nasdaq returns for the YTD are making a respectable showing, with an overall average of +6.9% year-to-date. Adding the portion of the dividend yield of 1.65% (1.8% x 0.916) brings the total gain to +8.55%, a notable return on investment, beating out most fixed income securities. This is a reminder that just by being in the market, the most conservative of investors would do well.
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My picks went down considerably in November, falling from +18.14% to a +4.65% gain year-to-date. Adding the dividend portion of 2.65% (2.89% x 0.916) brings the total return to +7.3%, beating the S&P but falling behind the indices average for the first time this year with only a month to go. Very unimpressive. PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR) was the leader for the second month, but it's down about $50 a share this month, followed by Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) which has been strong all year. Huaneng Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP), has been up and down but always deep in the black. Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), continues to be a huge disappointment.
Note that portional dividends have been added to the results. This is one of the criteria I use in my stock picks, and it is having an impact on the results thus far. Only three of Cramer's picks pay dividends, averaging about 0.66%. The indices pay a higher average of 1.8%, and my picks average still higher at about 2.89%. Google does not pay a dividend. The flatter the market is, the more dividends are a factor in overall returns.
Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates, but the rhetoric has died down considerably: The Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) and The Home Depot (NYSE: HD). Home Depot continues to receive the most negative sentiment, and the crushed housing market is keeping it from rebounding despite what many market watchers see as a deeply discounted turnaround play, and I would agree. I am even considering Home Depot again for next year.
The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and 11 month returns for the seven stocks I recommended, plus the addition of Spectra Energy Corp. (NYSE: SE) that was spun out of Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK). Among Cramer's picks, Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT), which was spun out of Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO), is included in the calculations.
- The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW): $40.02 is Up to $41.94 (+4.8%) 3.54% yield
- Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK): $33.02 (incl. Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE)) is Down to $32.11 (-2.76%) 4.31% yield
- The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD): $39.73 is Down to $28.56 (-28.11%) 2.31% yield
- Huaneng Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP): $36 is Up to $42.90 (+19.17%) 3.62% yield
- PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR): $142.12 is Up to $191.74 (+34.91%) 4.5% yield
- Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX): $22.00 is Down to $17.26 (-21.55%) 1.1% yield
- Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO): $51.61 is Up to $65.07 (+26.08%) 0.84% yield 2.89x.916=2.65 6.87%
The following index comparisons are also from December 28, 2006:
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Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,501.52 is Up to 13,371.72 (+6.96%)
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NASDAQ Composite Index: 2,425.57 is Up to 2,660.96 (+9.78%)
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Standard & Poor's 500 Index: 1,424.73 is Up to 1,481.14 (+3.96%)
The Cramer Speculative Stocks for 2007: 12.45
1) Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT): $5.66 is Down to $3.36 (-40.64%) No dividend
2) Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD): $5.49 is Down to $3.72 (-32.24%) No dividend
3) Savient Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SVNT): $12.01 is Up to $14.06. (+17.07%) No dividend
The Cramer Growth Picks are:
1) New York Stock Exchange Group (NYSE: NYX): $97.51 Down to $86.60 (-11.19%) No dividend
2) Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL): $80.87 Up to $182.22 (+125.32%) No dividend
3) Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO): $27.42 Up to $28.82 (+5.12%) No dividend
The Cramer Value Picks are:
1) Altria Group (NYSE: MO): $86.23 Up to $77.56 (+Kraft at .692024 x $34.55 = $23.91) to $101.47 (+18.65%) 4.12% yield
2) Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS): $200.80 Up to $226.64 (+12.87%) 0.72% yield
3) Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL): $31.26 Up to $36.61 (+17.11%) .97% yield
The New Powerhouse Google
Google had an amazing month in October, reaching towering heights, only to see lows off about $100 in November, but it finished strong in a volatile market. After eleven months of tracking Google, it has grown to be one of the largest capitalized companies in the world, now exceeding $200 billion, and remains of broad interest to the investing public and internet users alike. Google closed December 28, 2006 at $462.56, rose in January, then traded downward for a few months before rising again following the overall market. But in the last few months it has been hot. Google ended November at $693.00, for a solid YTD gain of $230.44 per share (+49.82%), slightly off last month's YTD gain. Google does not pay a dividend.
In Closing
What can I say about BloggingStocks' parent company, which has faltered all year long: Time Warner (TWX): No catalyst or no leadership? Some comparisons. No invitation has yet arrived to a board meeting to share my thoughts, and I guess I should not expect one. Cramer is thinking the same thoughts about Rite Aid, and Level Three, no doubt. I will continue to report during the week following the closing stock prices each month. Only one month to go!
Disclosure: I own shares of BRK.B, DOW, DUK, HNP, PTR, SE, TWX, and VLO.
To find more potential opportunities and verify my track record read Chasing Value or Serious Money.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-10-2007 @ 9:54PM
Matt Mosca said...
you are a little off base NYX is at 91.43 and it pays 1.00 div
12-10-2007 @ 10:37PM
Sheldon L said...
Matt,
Thanks for the note, but if you re-read you will find the stock price is from the end of November not todays close, and the dividends were based on 12/28/06.
12-10-2007 @ 10:38PM
Beltway Greg said...
Sheldon,
It's time. Apple is almost at $200. And, I saved my best trick for last calling a bottom in both Citigroup and Amazon. Everyone made fun of me when I called Apple at $200/share back in the spring. Now things aren't that funny anymore-they're frickin' hilarious. 7.3%?! Invest in utilities or Allied Capital or NAT. I can make 10% without even pushing myself. I'm up roughly 90% for the year. Elton John is still standing and I'm still pumping.
Beltway Greg
Anyone for $225?
12-12-2007 @ 10:04AM
daryl said...
hoping it will hit that following the holiday shopping spree...
12-11-2007 @ 4:49AM
Seattle Worker Bee said...
I actually did better this past year simply because I was too busy to trade very often and because last Christmas I bought Boeing after watching it for years and listening to my Dad bemoan the loss in value after 9/11 but sold it in July and put the money into apple after buying a Nike ipod connection and then more when I bought an Iphone. I figure if someone like me bought one that most of my friends would soon as wel.
I got nervous though when it first shot up to hmm 188? and and bailed but I forgot I had a standing order to buy some at 155 and it got close so I bought some more in the after -market one day. I already had HP and tada.. The rest is mutual funds. I can verify dates and all trades but I am up over 42% year over year but honestly it was by accident and a failure to diversify as I didnt have the time and just dumped it in those 3 stocks.
12-12-2007 @ 2:30AM
wtd said...
Do you get paid by how many times you say 'Jim Cramer'?
12-12-2007 @ 9:26AM
daryl said...
i play the stock market in the same way i root for sports... pick a team and go for it. to me diversity means 50% AAPL because of the iPhone and 50% ISRG leftovers from working for RBOT (and now glad i didnt sell when they dropped to $4) and i am loving every minute of it!
Up 160% this year and climbing!