Yahoo! (YHOO) shorts may not pay off

The short interest in Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) fell by 11.8 million shares to 54.3 million between October 31 and November 15, according to figures from the Nasdaq. The stock has never really recovered from poor earnings late last year and the perception that Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) will suck up a huge share of internet ad dollars. Yahoo!'s stock was over $43 in early 2006, but now trades at only $25.59.

To some extent, believing that Yahoo!'s shares will rise is believing that all internet advertising will continue to rise quickly. Yahoo!'s quarterly numbers show that its revenue is actually not growing as fast as online advertising in general, a rate that is put at about 20% year-over-year. But the company has moved to make acquisitions that will allow it to target display advertising better, and its Panama search ad platform has received at least modest reviews from customers.

The problem with gambling that Yahoo! can do better is that its performance does lag online revenue in general, and there is a perception that a recession could slow the flow of all internet dollars. Yahoo!'s modest growth rate might get worse. And its share of the U.S. search market is not really improving. Yahoo! sits at about 20%, while Google's monthly numbers run closer to 60%.

The market was also excited about Yahoo!'s big stake in China e-commerce company Alibaba. The firm went public last month, and, at one point, the U.S. company's piece of the IPO was worth over $5 billion. But Wall Street figured out that selling such a large stake was impossible. And Alibaba's shares did drop.

Yahoo! may not be going up and some shorts may get burned.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.