The New York Times reports that 200,000 Hollywood workers are about to be affected by the imminent strike of the writers. And Teamsters -- while not on strike -- are not likely to cross the writers' picket lines. The fight is over how the DVD and Internet pies get split between producers and writers. Which stocks will be winners and losers?
One winner is Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) as its shops will undoubtedly attract writers who normally would be reporting to a corporate office. They'll spend time using Starbucks wireless Internet access and drinking its over-priced Joe. In addition to all the people who will stop watching their favorite TV shows, the corporate losers from the strike will include the following:
- CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS) - David Letterman's writers will stop writing jokes and it will be interesting to see whether CBS will just start with the re-runs.
- The Walt Disney Companies (NYSE: DIS) - ABC will be able to run a few new episodes of Boston Legal, Lost, Grey's Anatomy, and Desperate Housewives before its audience gets bored with the re-runs.
- General Electric (NYSE: GE) - NBC Universal will probably run out of jokes for Jay Leno and scripts for 30 Rock after a few shows, unless the writers and producers can agree.
- News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) - I am not sure how many new episodes of The Simpsons are already written, but will News Corp. lose its audience when the re-runs start?
- Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) - I am not sure what shows or movies Sony is involved with but it will surely be hurt if it can't produce new movies.
- Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), parent of BloggingStocks, will surely be hurt if its HBO unit can't produce new shows and its Warner Brothers can't complete new movies (no worries though, BloggingStocks writers will keep on writing).
- Viacom (NYSE: VIA) will lose the audiences of its Comedy Central shows -- such as John Stewart's Daily Show and Stephen Colbert's Colbert Report. This morning's announcement that Viacom earned 96 cents a share -- beating analysts' 59 cents a share estimate -- could be a last hurrah since so much of that profit was due to the success of Transformers. It could be a while before the sequel can be written.
How much will the strike cost these companies? It depends on how long it lasts and how much the audience dwindles as they start showing re-runs. Advertisers will start to look elsewhere during the strike -- maybe the Internet. And if these advertisers do shift more money to the Web, will they come back to TV once the strike is over?
This suggests another possible winner -- Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). Can $1,000 a share be far away?
Which shows will you miss the most? Which other winners and losers do you see from the strike?
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-02-2007 @ 11:14AM
Anon said...
Get your facts straight......... THE TEAMSTERS ARE NOT ON STRIKE! The Writers Guild only asked the Teamsters Union to support their efforts in contract negotiations, which could include refusing to cross their picket lines. The Producers have threatened to fire any person who refuses to cross the picket, putting individual Teamsters and other Union members in a difficult, if not impossible situation.
11-02-2007 @ 1:28PM
anon 2.0 said...
2. get your reading glasses on... they SAID they aren't on strike!
11-02-2007 @ 1:34PM
Madame La Nell said...
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adjustments the Feds Total marginalization against the lower base tax cuts in the national and international
economy.
total ad hoc marginal cuts with tax basis as a base to reference the lower adjustments in federal tax cuts.
11-02-2007 @ 3:31PM
AvenueDLL said...
This writer should not be writing a blog about the entertainment business if he doesn't know, for example, "what shows or movies Sony is involved with..", and can't distinguish between those companies that own tv networks (Disney, CBS, News Corp, GE) and those that don't (Sony, Warners except for HBO). What a waste of cyberspace.
11-02-2007 @ 3:56PM
steve Holben in Denver said...
It says a lot about the real value of labor unions when the only way they can get attention is to go on strike and cause economic disruption. Most anybody else who has to compete in the real world gets fired if they try something like this. I'd suggest their employers hire non union replacements (comedy writing can't be that difficult that replacements can't be found pretty easily.) and let these goons get a taste of the real world for a while. Same goes for the teamsters and most certainly all the government workers who have unions to carry their water.
11-03-2007 @ 8:25AM
General X said...
The reason why the writers join a union is for people like Steve up there. They need protection from people who think what they do is easy. In reality every character you see on the screen is the brain child of some writer. Every scene you liked, ever show. Do they really not deserve fair pay. I think it is hypocritical to shout out in one breath about your better than expected profits, and the same breath laud declining and perilous conditions of business. I hope the strike lasts for a year.
11-03-2007 @ 1:53PM
steve Holben in Denver said...
Response to general X. First, if you're going to speak poorly of my thoughts, at least have enough conviction in yours to provide your real name as i did. Second, why does anybody need protection if what they produce has a market? I'm a builder and 2 years ago when I built some new homes there was a market. Now that market has weakened and its costing me money. Who's going to protect me?? If writers deserve protection why don't I?? What I do is every bit as difficult as being a writer. Where's my protection, General?? Third, what ever was in my first comments about profits?? I'm actually experiencing those declining and perilous business conditions you refer to, and don't have any profits. Are you going to be egalitarian and send me some, General X or what ever your name is??
11-03-2007 @ 7:33PM
studio painter said...
its a said day when your BA tells you that you half to cross the picket line.
what has the i.a.t.s.e. become. is it run by the producers now.
how did we get the "no strike clause" in ower contract anyways.
i must have missed that vote. i support the writers and hope they can stay strong !!!
and dont allow a "no strike clause " in your contract. are powers are in numbers the producers no this !!!
if im forced to cross a picket line to go to work. i should just mail my union dues to the producers ask for a decrease
in pay and give up my health insurance.
thanks mad 729 painter
11-05-2007 @ 1:09PM
bugsey said...
Personally, I've heard actors in interviews, even spoken to a few... the thing is; they're average morons like everybody else. (so are the writers, for that matter)... So hurrah for the writiers for demanding a fair slice from fatass producers. Maybe that pie ought to crumble a little more equitably right down to the carpenters, make-up artists and boom operators. Maybe J-Lo's "acting" should be rewarded a little less, and the people who put those witticisms, wise cracks, loving moments, tense scenes and (a little more often than ought) brainless dialogue into the mouths of our heretofore gods of the screen, large and small. Give props to the actors who choose good scripts, but don't forget that the creative force that makes them look so good (and apparently "deserve" ridiculous pay on their per annum) is manned by many, many thousands of human-hours hard labour.
I'm willing to cope with a few weeks without the few shows that make the otherwise lame and lamentable output of my television palatable. Maybe I'll even read a book...
11-05-2007 @ 3:41PM
curtis macdonald said...
WGA DIGITAL DISTRIBUTION SOLUTION
Every digital file has a Meta File embedded into the file. (Digital Fingerprint)
In this Meta File you would have your name associated with an ID number.
Your ID number would be recorded each time the file or Program is Streamed, Downloaded, or an Impression is placed allowing a database to accurately count the number of hits and tabulating your total.
Every WGA, DGA, SAG, AFTRA, BMI, ASCAP member would have an ID associated to a program and would get paid for each hit. (Imagine when all union and associations including craft services will want an ID in the Meta File to get performance residuals. Lowered up front costs and a gamble on the back-end)
You would get paid in Micro-Cents, 5 hits = 1 cent, or 20 hits = 1 cent.
Establish this as the standardized digital embedded working model and you can negotiate a larger sum as time goes on. (Or make an impact and ask for $1.00 a hit!) © 2007 www.myspace.com/curtismacdonald
11-07-2007 @ 12:32PM
anonymous said...
If writers strike, maybe we could get some intelligent entertainment by REAL writers who know how to "urge men's minds to vaster issues" than the most base of human emotions.
Reruns? isn't that what all the shows are anyway? Different characters; same old and very tiring dialogue.
Let 'em strike and go find REAL jobs!
1-14-2008 @ 3:20AM
lynda said...
This is a me me me I I I selfish move to continue this strike. If it didnt affect so many other people , their families and business, I would say continue on. The writers position are not life threating position that they have to continue on with this strike. Some of the Shit in movies and T V is just that shit. Television is so bad the only way to keep people watching is to add sex scenes. What make it so bad is the children are at home watching and learning about sex. So why are teen having sex so early, because of the thing they have seem on T V and at the movie and you the studio condon it. There is nothing left to the imagination any more. One comercial had a kid calling his daddy crazy, I think it a about BBQ sauce. Yes the parents are not parenting as they should, but they're now apart of the generation influenced by sex on T V and in the movie. I heard people talk about a movies and if it had a sex scene they put a great deal of emphasis on the sex scence. I hope when this ends and you people are back on the job clean it up.