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The Dow is at Jan. 2000 levels, but it's still a very different world

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It took nearly seven years, but during the trading day on Sept. 28, the Dow Jones industrial average briefly reached a new high of 11,725, surpassing the prior peak close of 11,723 set on Jan. 23, 2000.

Remember those days? That was during the height of the dot-com boom, when the economy was speeding ahead and technology shares were all the rage. My brother-in-law was holding CMGI, hoping for "one more double" and I was begging him to sell half and buy oil stocks instead (if only you'd listened, Bob!). I was very pregnant with my first child -- now a first grader. Time does fly.

Stocks fell for three painful years, first as the dot-com bubble burst, then Sept. 11 terrorist attacks pounded the economy, and finally, as corporate scandals like Enron and Worldcom gripped the nation. The Dow hit a low of 7,286 on Oct. 9, 2002. (a 38% decline from high).

Then, surprise, surprise, 2003 was a boom year for equities. But after that, the charts look kind of flat and bumpy on the road to Dow 11,000. I remember wondering in 2004 and 2005, would we ever get past that level? And this year, could we stay above it? Since August, however, stocks have had a very nice run up to today's close of 11,718.

What is fueling the stock buying now, my colleague Sarah Gilbert asked recently. It's certainly not obvious.

After all, the economy is slowing. The latest reading on gross domestic product came in even lower than thought. Today the Commerce Dept reported 2.6% growth in April-June, when 2.9% growth was reported as a preliminary figure a month ago. Growth in the first quarter was 5.6%.

The housing market is cooling. Energy prices, although coming down, remain stubbornly high. The U.S. auto industry remains on its back.

The simple reason why stocks have risen so much lately is that the Federal Reserve has stopped raising interest rates. Bullish investors believe that although we're still feeling the effects of prior rate hikes, now that the Fed has taken its foot off the brakes, the economy can start moving again.

Also, mortgage rates and gas prices are actually falling, which should get the housing market (and consumer spending) back on track.

Most important, I think, is the fact that stocks (especially the big ones that make up the Dow Industrials) are also looking cheap now on a price-earnings basis -- and a heck of a lot cheaper than they were January, 2000.

The Dow may have reached a new high, but we are still in a very different world than the bubble days of 2000. For investors, that should be a relief.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 26, 2009: 02:29 AM

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