Google: 100 initiatives, 1 revenue stream.


Google has initiated a multitude of ideas, features, partnerships, services, campaigns, strategies, promotions -- and only one revenue stream. I like the revenue stream best of all -- and so does Google.

The company has not given any indication of what it hopes to generate in revenue with each "exciting" new announcement, but each deal is clear about what's in it for their partners. Two things seem to be certain: All of Google's activities up until now are meant to drive incremental revenue to the mother ship: advertising (good idea -- just like network TV). Also clear: that Google will keep a corporate veil over the details of whatever it does, permitting some translucence but no transparency (poor idea). Google has admitted substantial increases in capital expenditures (at a rate faster than projected earnings) to support all of its initiatives. But many of its initiatives are free so its model is still all about traffic growth and advertising.

No harm in being focused, but the web is constantly being diluted by new offerings so that is hard to do. MySpace (acquired by News Corps) is the latest example of a site coming from nowhere to capture the time and attention of a massive amount of viewers/users. What would have happened to the major networks like NBC, CBS, and ABC if a competitor like Fox popped up over and over again in the early years, diluting the market? The networks would not have had the oligopoly that they enjoyed for so long. Now they all feel embattled losing advertising market share and earning capacity. This is a fact of life on the web.

Each of the major players AOL, MSN, Yahoo, Ebay, Amazon, Interactive and the others, struggle to maintain their foundation of support and grow while their shorelines are eroding from the constant pounding of the waves of competitors. We are very early in the life of the Internet as a commercial enterprise and it is going to be both wrenching and marvelous to watch it develop and see how it all plays out. Regardless of how many true Google believers there are supporting the share price, or any of the other Internet companies, it is apparent from observing the behavior of each company that they know time is not on their side and they must act quickly to establish themselves and hold everyone else at bay. Look for continued aggregation of sites and companies even in the absence of true mergers and acquisitions.

Google, like no other company, will be under the microscope come its Fall earnings report. I know this for a 'fact' because all of the Google supporters condemning my conservative view have told me to stay tuned for that occasion. So we will all stay tuned. Until then, in the absence of any earnings data, Google just bounces around.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.

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